HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—mostly firmer: CZ: up $.01; SX: down $.0050; WZ: up $.0250; KWZ: up $.03

·       MACRO: Global markets are working lower afterMonday’s record  Wall Street close; traders are moving to the sidelines ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting later this week. ASIA—Mostly weaker:  Nikkei, +1.96%; Shanghai,-0.18%; Hang Seng, -0.38%.  EUROPE: Mostly higher: DAX,-0.09%; FTSE, +0.32%; CAC, +0.04%.   WALL STREET—Futures are mostly firmer—DOW, +17; S&P, +7.25; NAS,-4.25.  EXTERNALS:  $ Index: -.184 @ 91.640; Gold: +$1.70@ $1,309;  Oct crude:+$0.44 @ $50.35/bl. 

• T-storm Weather: In the U.S., a large upper-level high keeps most areas much warmer than normal for at least one week.  The high causes an approaching system to slow and stall in the Plains and northwest Corn Belt this weekend, resulting in multiple rounds of thunderstorms and producing heavy rainfall of 1.00" to 3.00" with pockets of higher amounts, sharply improving soil moisture for upcoming HRW wheat planting and growth.  Sharply drier weather occurs with eastward extent
• CZ, up $.01 @ $3.5250; CH, up $.0075 @ $3.6475.  The funds opened the week by selling 5 K                    
• SX, down $.0050 @ $9.6725; SF, down $.0025 @ $9.7775.  Funds: Even SB, bot 3 SBM,  sold 4 SBO.  Board crush: $.88, -1; LY, $.75
• WZ, up $.0250 @ $4.45; WH, up $.0225 @ $4.66.  Fund selling on Monday—4 K   

CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn crop is rated 61% Good/Excellent, unchanged from last week but well below 74% last year.  Corn mature is 34% vs. 50% last year and the 5-year avg. of 47%.  Corn harvest is 7% vs. 8% last year and the 5-year avg. of 11%

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2017 U.S. corn crop is 167.5 bpa versus September USDA est. of 169.9

·       U.S. sorghum crop is rated 65% Good/Excellent versus 66% last week and 66% last year

• T-storm Weather: Some rain will eventually sneak eastward across the U.S. next week, but only light totals of 0.25” to 0.75” are expected across the Delta and southeast half of the Corn Belt, leaving corn within the region fairly dry

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean crop is rated 59% Good/Excellent vs. 60% last week and 73% last year.  Dropping leaves is 41% vs. 43% last year & the 5-year avg of 43.  Soybean harvest is 4%, unchanged from last year but behind the 5-year avg. of 5%

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2017 U.S. soybean crop is 48.2 bpa vs. September USDA est. of 49.9

• T-storm Weather: The potential for a meaningful frost for U.S. soybeans is low next week with highest chances in far-northern areas of the Corn Belt and Plains 
• ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to continue to range from 15-20 mbu per week short-term
• U.S. winter wheat planting is 13% vs. 15% last year and the 5-year avg. of 15%

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLV17, +$.44 @ $50.35; EBX, +$0.29 @ $55.77;EBX-QCLX, -$.10; RBV, -.0021; NGV, +.001; HOV, +.0104

·       A steady to firmer tone was evident in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago and New York up 1 ¼; Gulf added 1 ½; Dallas and Tampa unchanged; and LA was 1 ½ higher at $1.71 ½ per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker on Monday: 2016’s and 2017’s eased 1 to 82 ¼-83 ½ 

·       The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol spread gave up $.0141 yesterday & closed at +$.10260/gallon  

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                     ​;                

• Choice boxed beef values firmed $1.20 on Monday to $192.62, and are $1.06 higher vs. last week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $0.97 v. last week at $105.69/cwt, but is $3.47 lower v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 16-cents on Monday to $77.20, and is down $4.51 vs. a week ago

• Current nearby board hog crush value is $33.97/cwt vs. last week’s $33.74, last month’s $35.67 & last year’s $25.15

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather