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MARKET TREND Mostly firmer CZ, Down 1, SF, Up 1,WZ, Up 1

November 7, 2018 07:07 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Mostly firmer: CZ, -$.0025; SF, +$.0150; WZ, +$.0175; KWZ, +$.0050 
  • MACRO:  Wall Street likes the election results . . ., largely expected by investors and likely to prohibit radical policy changes.  Asia: Mostly weaker --Nikkei, -0.28%; Shanghai, -0.68%; Hang Seng, +0.10%. EUROPE: Higher--DAX, +1.02%; FTSE, +1.22%; CAC, +1.34%.  WALL STREET: Futures are higher: DOW, +164; S&P, +23; NAS, +81.25. EXTERNALS: Dec crude: +$0.45 @ $62.66; Dec Gold: +$10.70 @ $1,237;Dec $ Index-0.597 @ 96.520. Del’y: ETOH, 0,RR, 0; SB, 249

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., some pockets of light rain and snow showers affect varying areas over the next 7 to 10 days, but most areas will be drier and much colder than normal.  A seasonably-milder period begins in one week as Arctic air at least temporarily retreats and mild air from the Pacific spreads inland, warming cattle areas of the Plains as maximums return to the 40s-50s-60s

·       CZ, dn $.0025 @ $3.73; CH, dn $.0050 @ $3.8475.  The funds were sellers of 1 K yesterday  

  • SF, up $.0150 @ $8.8575; SH, up $.0125 @ $8.9775.  Funds sold 2 K SB, 0 K SBM, & 0 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.13, +3, LY: $.88
  • WZ, up $.0175 @ $5.1375; WH, up $.0125 @ $5.2850.  The funds bought 3 K in Tuesday’s session      

CORN/SORGHUM

  • ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is unchanged in the 35-45 mbu per week range

·       Consultant: In Brazil, record fast soybean planting in Mato Grosso should allow all safrinha (double crop) corn to be planted within the ideal window; i.e. by Feb. 20.  Generally, early planted safrinha corn tends to have higher yields

  • T-storm Weather: In Argentina, a stormy period unfolds over Friday-Monday as a strong system passes and produces heavy rain totals of 1.50" to 3.00", effectively breaking lingering dryness on corn

·       Ethanol margins: $0.03 per gallon—dn from $0.07 last week and well below $0.42 in 2017.  EIA report at 9:30 am CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

  • ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports continues to be in the 30-40 mbu per week range

·       Consultant: In Brazil, record fast soybean planting is occurring in Mato Grosso (#1 soybean producing state).  Soybean harvest in Mato Grosso is expected to begin in the second half of December, which is 10 days earlier than last year

  • ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. all wheat exports is 10-15 mbu per week 

·       T-storm Weather: Widespread rain Oct. 22-Nov. 5 left only 29% of U.S. HRW wheat drier than normal the last 14 days

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLZ18+$0.46 @ $62.66; EBF, +$0.93 @ $73.03; EBF-QCLF,+$0.43; RBZ, -0.0021; NGZ, -.015HOZ, +.0324

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +2.4 (+7.8); Gasoline, -2.3 (-1.2); Distillates, -2.6 (-3.6).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.052 mbpd (range: 1.030-1.060).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 22.922 mb (range 22.576-23.236)

·       Chicago ethanol $.01350 lower @ $1.2715; basis levels vs Chicago, weaker—New York, -.00150 @ $.1335; Gulf, -.0015 @ $.1360; Dallas, +.00350 @ $.07100; Tampa, -.00400 @ $.19850 and LA, -.01150 @ $.13350     

·       Ethanol RINs were steady/firm: 2017’s, +1/8 @ 6 ¾ 7 ½; 2018’s, steady @ 7 ¾ -8 ½; 2019’s, +1/8 @ 12-12 ¾                     

&mid​dot;       The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread widened $.0071 to +$.3970 per gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  &n​bsp;                   

  • Choice boxed beef was 17-cents higher on Tuesday at $218.76 and is up $3.48 vs. a week ago
  • Since Oct. 10, choice boxed beef has increased $16.65 (8.2%) and is at the highest level since June 19
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 58-cents on Tuesday to $72.40 and is down $3.72 vs. last week  
  • CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.08 on Tue. to $64.00.  December futures plummeted $3.00 & are $9.90 below the index 

Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm- Weather

 



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