HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mostly firmer: CZ, -$.0025; SF, +$.0050; WZ, +$.02; KWZ, +$.0250 
• MACRO:  Mid-term polling suggests a couple of years of political gridlock might be on the horizon, pending the outcome of today’s elections.  Asia: Mostly higher --Nikkei, +1.14%; Shanghai, -0.231%;Hang Seng, +0.72%.  EUROPE: Lower--DAX, -0.36%; FTSE, -0.51%; CAC, -0.42%.  WALL STREET: Futures are lower: DOW, -36; S&P, -5.25; NAS,-26.25.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude: -$0.14 @ $62.96; Dec Gold: +$3.70 @ $1,236; Dec $ Index, +0.127 @ 96.210. Del’y: ETOH, 238,RR, 0; SB, 251

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., significant rainfall going forward will mostly be limited to the Delta and far eastern Corn Belt, such that wetness concerns are not expected to be notable.  Coldness is expected to be notable as temperatures average much below normal from Tue.-Wed. forward, though some moderation is probable in 10 days or so as Arctic air retreats and is at least temporarily replaced by Pacific air

·       CZ, dn $.0025 @ $3.73750; CH, dn $.0025 @ $3.8550.  Fund buying spree continues, including 6 K on Monday 

• SF, up $.0050 @ $8.8625; SH, up $.0050 @ $8.9875  Funds sold 2 K SB, 1 K SBM, & 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.17, -2, LY: $.88
• WZ, up $.02 @ $5.0925; WH, up $.0225 @ $5.2525.  The funds began the week trading even for the day     

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Nov. 8 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2018 U.S. corn crop: 14.729 bbu (range 14.576-14.967) and 14.778 in Oct.

• Nov. 8 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn carryout--18/19, 1.775 bbu (range 1.566-2.105) and 1.813 in Oct.

·       U.S. corn harvest is pegged at 76% compared to 68% last year and the 5-year average of 77%

·       T-storm Weather: Dry weather for 7-10 days in southern Brazil eases wetness for remaining full-season corn planting

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 18/19 U.S. corn 1.994 bbu versus October USDA est. of 1.813

·       U.S. sorghum harvest progress is 64% vs. 70% last year and the 5-year avg. of 76%

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Nov. 8 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2018 U.S. soybean crop: 4.676 bbu (range 4.637-4.706) and 4.690 in Oct.

·       Nov. 8 WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean carryout--18/19, 0.906 bbu (range 0.820-1.010) and 0.885 in Oct.

·       U.S. soybean harvest is pegged at 83% compared to 89% last year and the 5-year average of 89%

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 18/19 U.S. soybean 1.095 bbu versus October USDA est. of 0.885

·       T-storm Weather: Soil moisture not a major problem for Brazil soybeans with mix of dry/wet area for planting, growth

·       Nov. 8 WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. all wheat carryout--18/19, 0.969 bbu (range 0.925-1.031) and 0.956 in Oct.

·       U.S. winter wheat planting is pegged at 84% compared to 90% for both last year and the 5-year average 

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLZ18, -$0.14 @ $62.96; EBF, -$0.26 @ $72.91; EBF-QCLF, -$0.11;RBZ, -0.0036; NGZ, -.041; HOZ, +.0063

·       Chicago ethanol $.01125 higher @ $1.28500; basis levels vs Chicago, mostly weaker—New York, -.0075 @ $.1350; Gulf, +.02125 @ $.13750; Dallas, -.00875 @ $.06750; Tampa, -.00875 @ $.20250 and LA, -.01250 @ $.1450     

·       Ethanol RINs were lower: 2017’s, -5/8’s @ 6 ½ -7 ½; 2018’s, -1/4  @ 8 -8 ¼; 2019’s, -1/2 @ 12-12 ½                    

·       The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread was again weaker, off $.0164 yesterday to +$.38990 per gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                     &n​bsp;

• Choice boxed beef increased 9-cents on Monday to $218.59 and is up $4.83 compared to last week  
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $1.14 v. last week at $114.95/cwt, but is $8.58 lower v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined 77-cents on Monday to $72.98 and is $2.67 lower vs. a week ago
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $33.34/cwt vs. last week’s $35.45, last month’s $35.55 & last year’s $42.11 

Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm- Weather

 

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