HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—Mostly firmer: CU, +$.0125; SU, -$.0125; WU, +$.04; KWU, +$.0125
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MACRO: The Turkish lira has mustered a modest rally, sending a sigh of relief ripping through major equity markets overnight. Asia—Mostly lower: Nikkei, +2.28%; Shanghai, -0.17%; Hang Seng, -0.66%. EUROPE: Mostly higher: DAX,+0.26%; FTSE, -0.01%; CAC, +0.14%. WALL STREET: Futures look to recover: DOW,+87; S&P, +9.75; NAS, +34.75. EXTERNALS: Sep crude: +$0.58 @ $67.78; Aug Gold: +$2.30 @ $1,194; Dec $ Index, -0.116 @ 95.730. DEL’Y: SBM, 34; SBO, 66; SB, 52
· T-storm Weather: Numerous opportunities for rain exist going forward, initially across the southeast ~60% of production through Thursday when generalized totals of 0.75"-1.50" are expected. Another system passes within Sat.-Mon. to produce additional rainfall of 0.50"-1.00" across a wider area. Additional rain chances follow, but the setup in one to two weeks will take time to determine. Temperatures will be seasonable over the next two weeks, and possibly cool in parts of the Corn Belt
· CU, up $.0125 @ $3.5775; CZ, up $.0125 @ $3.7175. Funds follow Friday’s sell-off with another 5 K to open the week
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SU, dn $.0125 @ $8.56; SX, dn $.0075 @ $8.68. Funds: Bot 3 SB, 2 SBM, 1 SBO. Board Crush: $1.79, +$.13, LY: $.92
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WU, up $.04 @ $5.3750; WZ, up $.0275 @ $5.5622. The funds sold an additional 10 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· U.S. corn crop is rated 70% Good/Excellent, down a point vs. last week but above 62% last year. Crop development remains well ahead of normal: dough is at 73% vs. 58% last year & the 5-year avg. of 56%
· ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2018 U.S. corn crop is 176.7 bpa versus August USDA projection of 178.4. U.S. corn ending stocks for 18/19 are now forecast at 1.536 bbu (USDA at 1.684)
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T-storm Weather: Near- and above-normal rainfall remains likely for most U.S. corn over the next two weeks, except for possibly the northwest ~10% of production
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· U.S. soybean crop rated 66% Good/Excellent, down a point vs. last week but above 59% last year. Blooming is at 96% v. 93% last year & the 5-year avg. of 92%, while setting pods is at 84% v. 77% last year & the 5-year avg. of 72%
· ATI Research: Updated yield est. for 2018 U.S. soybean crop is 50.5 bpa vs. August USDA projection of 51.6. U.S. soybean ending stocks for 18/19 now forecast at 761 mbu (USDA at 785)
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ATI Research: U.S. hard red spring wheat crop est. is unch at 563 mbu. Harvest is at 35% vs. 38% last year and the avg. of 27%. U.S. winter wheat harvest: 94% vs. 97% last year and 96% for the five-year avg.
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T-storm Weather: Australia wheat; drier than normal next 7-10 days in New South Wales/Queensland (~30% of prod)
ENERGY
· Higher: CLU18, +$0.58 @ $68.78; EBV, +$0.61 @ $73.22; EBV-QCLV, +$0.02; RBU,+.0265; NGU, -.004; HOU, +.0188
· On Monday, cash ethanol markets were mixed: Chicago was quoted at $1.3575, up $0.005; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.105; Gulf, +$0.1075; Dallas, +$0.075; Tampa, +$0.2075; and LA, +$0.27
· Ethanol RINs were steady on Monday: 2017’s were 15 ½-16 ½, while 2018’s were 19-20
· The September RBOB/September ethanol spread gave up $.0285 on Monday, closing at $.66170/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef values increased $1.82 on Monday to $208.43 and are up $2.75 compared to a week ago
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5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price fell $2.00 v. last week to $110.98/cwt and is $4.19 lower v. last year
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USDA mandatory pork carcass eased 54-cents on Monday to $69.68 and is $2.10 lower vs. last week
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Current nearby board hog crush value is $20.52/cwt vs. last week’s $19.16, last month’s $25.40 & last year’s $38.60
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather