HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—Mostly firmer: CH: up $.02; SF: up $.05; WH: down $.0025; KWH: up $.0025.
· MACRO. Markets nervous-possible Middle East unrest should the U.S. decide to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital . ASIA—Much lower: Nikkei, -1.97%; Shanghai,-0.29%; Hang Seng, -2.14%. EUROPE: Lower: DAX, -1.03%; FTSE, -0.17%; CAC, -0.65%. WALL STREET—Futures are lower—DOW, -49; S&P, -4.25; NAS, -30.50. EXTERNALS: $ Index: -.039 @ 93.295; Gold: +$5.50 @ $1,267; Jan crude: -$0.40 @ $57.22/bl. Del’y: SBM, 295; SBO, 262; C, 1,127; ETOH, 138; HRW, 164; SRW, 405
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T-storm Weather: Despite a few thunderstorms, below to much-below normal rainfall affects Argentina, South Brazil, and Paraguay over the next 10 days. Occasional heat also develops from late-week forward across the northwest two-thirds of Argentina's growing belt and Paraguay, while areas to the east stay cool. Heavy rain focuses on key areas of Center-West, North, Northeast and Southeast Brazil over the next 10 to 14 days, including the key states of Goias and Mato Grosso
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CH, up $.02 @ $3.5550; CK, up $.02 @ $3.6425. Fund buying on Tuesday estimated at 2 K
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SF, up $.05 @ $10.1350; SH, up $.05 @ $10.2550. Funds: bot 6 SB, 6 SBM, 0 SBO. Board Crush: $1.14, +$.03; LY, $.76
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WH, down $.0025 @ $4.3230; WK, up $.0025 @ $4.4525. The Funds were even inTuesday’s trade
CORN/SORGHUM
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US. Census report released on Tue. pegged U.S. corn exports for October at 107 mbu vs. 143 mbu last year (-25%)
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T-storm Weather: Topsoil dryness is developing across South Brazil, but not subsoil level given rainfall was close to normal the last 30 days. Full-season corn in Brazil becomes sensitive to moisture levels over the 2nd half of December
· Consultant: Brazil corn production estimate for 2017/18 is unchanged this week at 88.0 MMT vs. 98.5 MMT last year
· Ethanol margins: $0.22 per gallon—down vs. $0.26 last week and well below $0.49 in 2016. EIA report at 9:30 am CST
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: Argentina soybean production is unchanged this week at 55.0 MMT. Recent rains helped crops in some western areas, but could be classified as disappointing especially in the more eastern areas
· T-storm Weather: Some thunderstorms occur in dry areas of Argentina Dec. 15-20, but only 0.50" to 1.00" is probable, meaning that many areas will have received only 25% to 50% of normal rainfall over the next two weeks
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ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. all wheat exports remains at 10-15 mbu per week
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T-storm Weather: In the U.S. very little or no rain occurs from Nebraska south over the next 10 days or longer
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLF18, -$0.40 @ $57.22; EBG -$0.43 @ $62.43; EBG-QCLF, -$0.03; RBF,-.0156; NGF, +.008; HOF, -.0136
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -2.4 (-5.5); Gasoline, +1.7 (+9.2); Distillates, +1.0 (+4.3). Pre-report estimates for ethanol production avg. 1.068 million barrels per day. The avg. estimate for ethanol stocks is 22.11 million barrels.
· On Tuesday, cash ethanol markets were mostly steady to higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.355, up $0.0025; Basis to Chicago—New York, +10 ¼; Gulf, +7 ½; Dallas, +4; Tampa, +19; and LA, +18
· On Tue., ethanol RINs weakened: 2016’s dn 2 ¼ at 83-84 ½; 2017’s off 2 ¼ to 83 ½-85; & 2018’s eased 2 ¼ to 83 ½-85
· The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread gained $.0152 yesterday, widening +$.36060/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef values firmed 89-cents on Tuesday to $209.08, and are 45-cents higher vs. last week
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February live cattle futures on Tuesday closed at $120.525—the lowest settlement price for the contract since Oct. 17
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 52-cents on Tuesday to $84.03, and is up $2.15 vs. a week ago
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CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.43 on Tue. to $64.35. December futures eased $0.675 & are $0.075 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather