HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—Mostly a little firmer: CH, +$.0050; SH, -$.0275; WH, +$.01; KWH, +$.01
· MACRO. Equities now seem to be pulling back from recent highs and taking stock of the “where to next”-note gold. ASIA—Mostly higher: Nikkei, -0.26%; Shanghai, +0.24%; Hang Seng, +0.20%. EUROPE: Weaker: DAX,-0.87%; FTSE, -0.09%; CAC, -0.45%. WALL STREET—Futures are much lower—DOW, -116; S&P, -10.75; NAS, -36.00. EXTERNALS: $ Index: -.490 @ 91.77; Feb Gold: +$10.60 @ $1,324; Feb crude: +$0.46 @ $63.42. Deliveries: SBM, 99; SBO, 140; SB, 21; RR, 33; ETOH, 0
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T-storm Weather: In Argentina, widespread rain is probable Sat.-Sun. when a cool front breaks ongoing heat, thereby triggering thunderstorms and producing generalized totals of 1.00" to 2.00". Several days of drying follow, but additional waves likely pass three to five days later, maintaining the probability for more than one rain to occur over the next two weeks. In Brazil, most areas (except for Bahia) receive rain at one point or another over the next two weeks; drier in the north and wetter in the south
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CH, up $.0050 @ $3.4950; CK, up $.0050 @ $3.5775. Fund buying was estimated at 4 K on Tuesday
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SH, dn $.0275 @ $9.61; SK, dn $.0250 @ $9.72. Funds: Sold 3 K SB, 4 K SBM, Bot 2 K SBO. Board Crush: $1.07, -2; LY, $.77
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WH, up $.01 @ $4.3325; WK, up $.0125 @ $4.4650. The funds were said to be in for 5 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
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Jan. 12 USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. corn stocks is 12.429 bbu vs. 12.386 last year
· Jan. 12 USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn 17/18 carryout is 2.437 bbu—steady with December
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T-storm Weather: In Argentina, except for a few thunderstorms in southern areas Thu.-Fri., dry and hot weather persist over the next four days as maximums continues to reach the 90s-100s. Rain and cooler temps arrive Sat.-Sun.
· Ethanol margins: $0.21 per gallon—down vs. $0.23 last week and below $0.32 in 2017. EIA report at 9:30 am CST
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Jan. 12 USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. soybean stocks is 3.179 bbu vs. 2.898 last year
· Jan. 12 USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean 17/18 carryout is 479 mbu vs. 445 in December
· ATI Research: USDA’s 2.225 bbu U.S. soybean export est. looks over-stated despite recent aggressive Chinese buying
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Jan. 12 USDA Winter Wheat Seedings: Avg. trade est.; HRW, 22.4 mil acre (23.4 in ‘17); SRW, 5.6 (5.7), White, 3.5 (3.5)
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Jan. 12 USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. wheat stocks is 1.851 bbu vs. 2.077 last year
· T-storm Weather: Light rain & snow develop across HRW wheat in Northern KS & points north/northeast tonight/Thu.
ENERGY
· Firmer: CLG18, +$.46@ $63.42; EBH, +$0.27 @ $69.09; EBH-QCLH, -$0.18; RBG,+.0104; NGG, +.030; HOG, +.0094
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -2.5 (-11.2); Gasoline, +2.5 (+4.3); Distillates, +1.1 (+4.7). Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.029 mil barrels/day (range 1.020-1.050). Avg. est. for ethanol stocks is 22.6 mil barrels (range 22.4-22.8)
· On Tuesday, cash ethanol markets were mixed: Chicago was quoted at $1.26, up $0.01875; Basis to Chicago—New York, +13 ½; Gulf, +11; Dallas, +12; Tampa, +27; and LA, +30
· On Tuesday, ethanol RINs eased: 2016’s off 1 ½ at 64-65; 2017’s fell 1 ½ to 65-66; and 2018’s down 1 ½ at 65-66
· The Feb RBOB/Feb ethanol spread popped out $.0234 yesterday, to +$.51020/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
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Choice boxed beef values gained 29-cents on Tuesday to $210.49, and are up $5.35 vs. a week ago
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5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $1.23 v. last week at $121.61/cwt, but is $3.91 higher v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased $1.32 on Tuesday to $78.3, and is $1.08 higher vs. last week
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CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.72 on Tue. to $66.37. February futures firmed $0.20, & are $6.805 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather