HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Moslty higher: CK, +$.0075; SK, -$.01; WK, +$.0325; KWK, +$.0350
• MACRO: Earnings versus geopolitical & trade concerns—Earnings takes yesterday’s round of trading.  Asia: Firm: Nikkei, +1.42%; Shanghai, +0.80%; Hang Seng, +0.74%.  EUROPE: Mostly higher: DAX, -0.13%; FTSE, +0.70%; CAC, +0.12%.  WALL STREET: Futures are modestly higher: DOW, +27; S&P, +3.50; NAS, +10.00. EXTERNALS: Apr Gold: -$1.70 @ $1,346; May crude: +$0.58 @ $67.10; $ Index,+0.062 @ 88.405

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., rain & snow affect northern areas of Corn Belt & Plains through Wed., while southern half of Corn Belt dries.  Next round of rain follows within Fri.-Sun. across central/southern Plains & Delta, producing 0.75"- 1.50" & alleviating drought on HRW wheat.  A few showers & thunderstorms affect Plains & western Corn Belt next week, but not the eastern Corn Belt, leaving Illinois, Indiana, Missouri & Ohio fairly dry over next 10 days.  Coldness continues over next 7 days, then breaks

·       CK, up $.0075 @ $3.81; CN, up $.0075 @ $3.90. Fund liquidation continued with another 4 K sold on Tuesday              

• SK, dn $.01 @ $10.45; SN, dn $.0125 @ $10.56. Funds: bot 2 SB, 3 SBM, 0 SBO.Board crush:  $1.35, +4; LY: $.83
• WK, up $.0325 @ $4.6950; WN, up $.0275 @ $4.8425.  Fund activity saw buying of an estimated 2 K yesterday                       

 CORN/SORGHUM

• ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn planting progress increases approximately 9% from April 15-22 to 14%
• T-storm Weather: In the U.S., coldness breaks next week as temps fluctuate within a normal range, likely marking an end to the unusually cold period.  Soils will warm from next week forward, and snowpack will not exist in 7 to 10 days

·       Consultant: Argentina corn crop production estimate is unchanged this week at 32.0 MMT; lower bias going forward 

• Ethanol margins: $0.24 per gallon—up vs. $0.19 last week but below $0.38 in 2017.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• ATI Research: Record NOPA soybean crush in March should lead to increase in USDA’s 17/18 crush est. of 1.970 bbu

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. steady at 39.0 MMT; lower bias going forward.  Harvest: 23.6% as of April 12 

• T-storm Weather: In the U.S., rain chances generally expand eastward from late next week or weekend forward, but numerous uncertainties exist with the most likely scenario being for some rains, but not large-scale wash-outs

·       ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. spring wheat planting progress increases approx. 10% from April 15-22 to 25%

·       T-storm Weather: Little to no precip forecast next 7 days for U.S. HRS wheat area of NE North Dakota; temps stay cold

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLK18, +$0.58 @ $67.10; EBN, +$0.52 @ $71.49; EBN-QCLN, -$0.05; RBK,+.0105; NGK, +.012; ​HOK, +.0160

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -0.2 (-1.0); Gasoline, -0.9 (-2.5); Distillates, -0.5 (-0.9).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.013 mil barrels/day (range 0.990-1.030).  Avg. est. for ethanol stocks is 21.9 mil barrels (range 21.5-22.5)

·       On Tuesday, cash ethanol markets were firmer: Chicago was quoted at $1.4775, up $0.01; Basis to Chicago—New York, +11 ¼; Gulf, +9; Dallas, +6 ¼; Tampa, +19; and LA, +23 ¾

·       On Tuesday, ethanol RINs were mixed: 2017’s down 2 at 28-29; but 2018’s up ¾ at 36-37 ½

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread was little changed yesterday, slipping $.0007 to+$.56620/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY          ​                     &nbs​p;     

• Choice boxed beef values increased 34-cents on Tuesday to $212.13, but are still $1.38 lower compared to last week
• Estimates for Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Apr 1 on feed, 107.4%; Mar placements, 89.8%; Marketed in Mar 96.0%
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 31-cents higher on Tuesday at $67.89, & is up $1.75 vs. a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.49 on Tue. to $54.02.  May futures fell $0.275 but are still $13.88 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather