HIGHLIGHTS
-
MARKET TREND—Mixed to indecisive: CZ: down $.01; SX: up $.0075; WZ: down $.0050; KWZ: up $.0050
· MACRO: Asia awaits India Central Bank policy; Spain’s Catonia situation worsens, weighing heavily on the Spanish market; U.S. futures suggest a pause. ASIA—Firmer: Nikkei,+0.06%; Shanghai, Closed; Hang Seng, +0.73%. EUROPE: Mostly lower: DAX, +0.08%; FTSE, -0.05%; CAC, -0.37%. WALL STREET—Futures are lower—DOW, -4; S&P, -1.75;NAS, -6.25. EXTERNALS: $ Index: -.239 @ 93.175; Gold:+$5.70 @ $1,277; Dec crude:-$0.23 @ $50.51/bl. Del’y: SBM, 67; SBO, 172
-
T-storm Weather: Widespread rain focuses on the Corn Belt and central / southern Plains as several features pass through Saturday, followed by drying from west to east within a cool period that produces frost north next week. Additionally, a tropical system is more probable than earlier to develop in the Gulf of Mexico later this week and weekend, then drift across the Southeast Sun.-Mon. – most likely to the east of the Delta and Corn Belt, but including a swath of SRW wheat
-
CZ, down $.01 @ $3.4850; CH, down $.0075 @ $3.6150. Fund activity on Tuesday consisted of 3 K in new buying
-
SX, up $.0075 @ $9.56; SF, up $.0075 @ $9.6675. Funds: Sold 2 SB; 2 SBM & bought 1 SBO. Board Crush: $.78, 0; LY: $.74
-
WZ, down $.0050 @ $4.4750; WH, down $.0075 @ $4.6475. The funds bought 3 K in yesterday’s trading
CORN/SORGHUM
-
T-storm Weather: Thunderstorms increase in coverage today through Thu. across central & southern Plains, then culminate in widespread rain across the northwest two-thirds of the Corn Belt within Thu.-Sat.; 1.50”-3.00” totals
-
ATI Research: The implied range on near-term U.S. corn exports is broad at 26.6-37.4 mbu per week; our bias is again in the mid to high 20s
· Consultant: Total corn acreage in Brazil could fall 10%, with a significant decline in full-season acreage of 20% or more
· Ethanol margins: $0.26 per gallon—down vs. $0.31 last week and below $0.55 in 2016. EIA report at 9:30 am CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· T-storm Weather: Several storm systems over the next week produce widespread rain of 1.50”-3.00” away from Delta & southeast Corn Belt; wettest within northwest half to two-thirds of Corn Belt & eastern third to halves of Plains
-
ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports has increased to the 60-70 mbu per week range by the end of the up-coming 4-week period; e.g. a couple of weeks in the 30-40 range is quite possible
· T-storm Weather: Besides Queensland (~6% of Australia wheat), below-normal rain continues for 10 days elsewhere
· ATI Research: Sluggish sales/shipments pace support slight cut in U.S. HRW export forecast in Oct. 12 USDA report
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLZ17, -$0.23 @ $50.51; EBZ, -$0.22 @ $55.78;EBZ-QCLZ, +$.02; RBX, -.0105; NGX, +.025; HOX, -.0010
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -0.3 (-4.1); Gasoline, +1.2 (+4.2); Distillates, -1.8 (-0.6)
· Additional weakness was noted in most cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago, Dallas and Gulf off 1; New York and Tampa fell 1 ½; but LA was unchanged at $1.68 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs firmed again on Tuesday: 2016’s and 2017’s increased 2 ¾ to 71-75 ½
· The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol spread widened $.0102 on Tuesday, to +$.08550/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
-
Choice boxed beef values were 65-cents higher on Tuesday at $197.87, and are up $1.09 compared to last week
-
Recent recovery in choice boxed beef values is highlighted by week-to-week increases for 12 consecutive trading days
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 45-centson Tuesday to $71.88, and is down 29-cents v. a week ago
-
CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.10 on Tue. to $54.39. October futures gained $2.625 & are $5.485 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather