HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mixed: CZ, +$.01; SX, -$.0450; WZ, +$.01; KWZ, -$.0025 
• MACRO:  Saudi Arabia & the recent event in Turkey are roiling global markets as tensions escalate. Asia: Big declines--Nikkei, -2.67%;Shanghai, -2.26%; Hang Seng, -3.08%.  EUROPE: Down a fair amount--DAX, -1.94%; FTSE, -0.81%; CAC, -1.46%.  WALL STREET: Futures very negative: DOW, -293; S&P, -36.00; NAS, -109.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude:-$0.99 @ $68.37; Dec Gold: +$12.70 @ $1,237; Dec $ Index, -0.149 @ 95.660.

·       Weather: The U.S. Plains will see some light rain and snow Wed-Thu with generally dry weather the norm elsewhere as a surface level high dominates the Corn Belt/Delta until at least Friday .  Following this, some light rain and/or snow can be expected to effect the Corn Belt and Delta regions Friday through Sunday. A more unsettled, stormier period will follow but heavy precipitation is not expected.  Brazil/Paraguay will see daily rains the next 10-14 days; Argentina should get near-normal precip

·       CZ, up $.01 @ $3.7050; CH, up $.0075 @ $3.8250.  The funds opened the week buying 3 K   

• SX, dn $.0450 @ $8.54; SF, dn $.0450 @ $8.68.  Funds: Bot 1 K SB, 0 SBM and 0 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.50, -3, LY: $.95
• WZ, up $.0001 @ $5.09; WH, up $.0175 @ $5.2925.  Managed Money sales on Monday:  6 K

 CORN/SORGHUM

·       December 2018 corn futures on Monday closed at $3.69 ½; note this was 18 cents above the 10/23/017 close

·       U.S. corn crop is rated 68% Good/Excellent, unchanged from last week but above 66% LY & 68% avg.  Corn harvest is 49% vs. 39% last year and the 5-year avg. of 47%

·       ATI Research: Ending stocks estimate for the 2018/19 U.S. corn crop year increased 14 to 1.944 bbu vs. Oct USDA est. of 1.813 bbu with feed/residual up 36 this week and exports trimmed by 50

·       U.S. sorghum crop is rated 53% Good/Excellent, 2 points lower than last week and but well below last year’s 65%.  Harvest progress is 46% vs. 46% last year and the 5-year avg. of 48%   

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       November 2018 soybean futures on Mon. closed at $8.58 ½, a $1.22 ¼ discount to the 10/23/2017 close

·       U.S. soybean crop rated 66% Good/Excellent, unchanged vs. last week but above 61% last year.    Soybean harvest is 53% vs. 69% last year & well behind 5-year avg. of 53%

·       ATI Research: Ending stocks est. for the 2018/19 U.S. soybean crop year increased 60 to 1.137 bbu vs. Oct USDA est. of 0.885 bbu—increasing pessimism regarding additional Chinese buying

• ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to continue to range from 15-20 mbu per week short-term

·       Nationwide U.S. winter wheat planting is 72% vs. 73% last year and the 5-year average of 77%; Michigan is at 65% vs. the 5-year avg. of 76%; KS, 67% vs. 80%.  Nationwide emergence is 53% vs. 50% last year and the 55% average

ENERGY

·       Down: CLZ18, -$0.99 @ $68.37; EBZ, -$1.37 @ $78.46; EBZ-QCLZ, -$0.32;RBZ, -0.0379; NGZ, +.021; HOZ, -.0286

·       Chicago ethanol was off $.00525 Monday @ $1.26; basis levels vs Chicago, mostly firm—New York, +$.00025 @ $.1150; Gulf, +$.00775 @ $.10500; Dallas, +$.00275 @ $.0825; Tampa, +$.00525 @ $.21 and LA, -$.00475 @ $.17     

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker: 2017’s, -3/4 @ 8-9; 2018’s, -1/2 @ 9 ¼-10; 2019’s, -1/2 @ 13-14                

·       The Nov RBOB/Nov ethanol spread eased $.0046 Monday to +$.65030 per gallon

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                ​;                      

• Choice boxed beef values rose $1.35 on Monday to $209.28 and are $4.48 higher compared to last week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price fell $0.47 last week to $110.05/cwt and is $0.82 lower vs. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value edged up $0.07 on Monday to $77.05 and is up $2.92 vs. a week ago
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $28.16/cwt vs. last week’s $30.91, last month’s $34.60 & last year’s $39.32