HIGHLIGHTS
-
MARKET TREND—Mixed: CZ, +$.01; SX, -$.0425; WZU, -$.03; KWZ, -$.0225.
-
MACRO: Most global markets are firmer; old news but wires mention PRC delaying U.S. firms operating licenses until tariff talks “progress”. ASIA: Higher:Nikkei, +0.96%; Shanghai, +1.15%; Hang Seng, +2.54%. EUROPE: Mostly higher:DAX, +0.40%; FTSE, -0.34%; CAC, +0.17%. WALL STREET: Futures are firmer: DOW,+31; S&P, +2.75; NAS, +13.00. EXTERNALS: Oct crude: -$0.90 @ $69.47; Dec Gold: -$1.10 @ $1,210; Dec $ Index, +0.127 @ 94.485. DELY: SBM, 23; SBO, 225; C, 146: SB, 340; SRW,53
· T-storm Weather: Dry & mild weather continue over the next week in the central U.S., improving conditions for harvesting & planting. Some changes follow in 7-10 days with development of thunderstorms in the Plains & western Corn Belt, including western corn, soybean, & HRW wheat areas. Hurricane Florence will make landfall Fri. near the NC-SC border. The main threat is a prolonged period of heavy rainfall across the eastern Carolinas that is likely to produce a multi-day logistics & flooding problem
· CZ, up $.01 @ $3.5350; CH, up $.0050 @ $3.6550. The funds sold 25 K on Report Day
-
SX, dn $.0425@ $8.3575; SF, dn $.0450 @ $8.49. Funds: Even SB, bot 3 SBM & sold 1 SBO. Board Crush: $1.60, -6, LY: $.87
-
WZ, dn $.0325 @ $5.0350; WH, dn $.03 @ $5.24. The funds were sellers of 10 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT. Trade expects 31-47 mbu for 18/19 corn
· ATI Research: U.S. corn yield in Supply/Demand report jumped from 178.4 bpa in Aug. to 181.3. Also caught the trade leaning the wrong way: only 1 out of 19 analysts surveyed ahead of the report were pegging a higher yield vs. Aug.
-
T-storm Weather: Dry and unseasonably mild weather dominate the central U.S. over the next week. The end result is for the coverage and intensity of wetness to diminish for corn harvesting through at least mid-month
· Ethanol grind: Total of 1,020,000 barrels/day for week end Sep. 7—dn 67 thou v. prior week and dn 2.6% v. last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales report. Trade expects 18-37 for 18/19 soybeans; soymeal, 0-100 K MT for 17/18 and 100-300 for 18/98; soyoil, 0-15 K MT for 17/18 and 0-20 for 18/19
· ATI Research: China’s 17/18 soybean imports were reduced 2.0 MMT to 94.0; 18/19 imports were trimmed 1.0 MMT to 94.0 as well. China is still the major wild card for beans; some think 18/19 imports could be as low as 83-84 MMT
· Export Sales report. Trade expects 11-18 mbu for 18/19 all wheat
· T-storm Weather: Sharply drier than normal weather is forecast over the next 7-10 days for all Australia wheat. Temperatures are forecast to be slightly cooler than normal
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLV18, -$0.90 @ $69.47; EBX, -$0.56 @ $79.18; EBX-QCLX, +$0.31; RBV, -0.0090; NGV, +.002; HOV, -.0049
· Cash ethanol markets were again mixed: Chicago was quoted at $1.27, $.01 lower; Basis to Chicago were slightly firmer with the exception of LA—New York, +$0.09; Gulf, +$0.0950; Dallas, +$0.06; Tampa, +$0.19; and LA, +$0.23
· Ethanol RINs were weaker yesterday: 2017’s slipped 3/8’s to 15 -15 ½ and 2018’s were 5/8 lower at 21 ¼ - 21 ¾
· The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol spread gave up $.0136 cents yesterday to close at +$.7569 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
-
Choice boxed beef values declined $1.28 on Wednesday to $204.79 and are down $3.96 vs. last week
-
A week-to-week decline in choice boxed beef has been seen for 12 consecutive trading days
-
USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.70 on Wednesday to $69.84 and is $3.26 higher vs. a week ago
-
CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.94 on Wed. to $48.49. October futures firmed $1.325 and are $7.31 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather