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MARKET TREND Mixed CZ up 1, SF down 2, WZ up 3

November 29, 2017 07:26 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Mixed: CZ: down $.0025; SF: down $.0375; WZ: up $.0175; KWZ: up $.0125 

·        MACRO.  Full vote on Senate tax relief bill could be Thursday although not all are on board; financials drive Dow higher on Tuesday as likely new fed chair want to loosen regs.  ASIA—Mostly firmer: Nikkei, +0.49%; Shanghai, +0.13%; Hang Seng, -0.17%.  EUROPE: Mostly higher: DAX, +1.00%; FTSE, -0.60%; CAC, +0.65%.  WALL STREET—Again, Upward—DOW futures, +62; S&P, +2.00; NAS,+1.75.  EXTERNALS: $ Index+.027 @ 93.240; Gold-$1.40 @ $1,294; Jan crude: -$0.43 @ $57.56/bl. 

  • T-storm Weather: Surface-level high pressure keeps eastern Argentina and South Brazil drier than normal over the next 10 days.  Conversely, scattered thunderstorms produce near- and above-normal rainfall in western Argentina to break the dry and cool period.  Additionally, multiple rounds of thunderstorms produce heavy rainfall of 2.75" to 5.50" in central and northern areas of Brazil, keeping first-crop corn and soybeans in the Center-West and Southeast moist through at least the first week of December
  • CZ, down $.0025 @ $3.36; CH, up $.0025 @ $3.50.  The funds were again sellers of 3 K    
  • SF, down $.0375 @ $9.8925; SH, down $.0350 @ $10.0125.  Funds: sld 1 SB, 2 SBM, bot 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $.98, $.00; LY, $.74 
  • WZ, up $.0175 @ $4.1250; WH, up $.0150 @ $4.3075.  The funds were  estimated to be even inTuesday trading     

CORN/SORGHUM

  • December 2017 corn futures on Tue. posted a contract low of $3.35 ¾--lowest price for nearby corn since Aug. 31
  • U.S. corn exports through late-November were down 42% vs. last year but up ~7% compared to the pace seen in 2015
  • T-storm Weather: Extensive topsoil and subsoil dryness exist in Argentina and far-southern Brazil from little or no rain over the last several weeks, which has aided planting at the expense of drying on early-planted crops

·        Consultant: In Argentina, topsoil is drying out to the point that corn germination cannot be assured without more rain

·        Ethanol margins: $0.26 per gallon—up vs. $0.21 last week but well below $0.54 in 2016.  EIA report at 9:30 am CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Consultant: Right now, the prospects for the 2017/18 Brazilian soybean crop are improving.  The earliest planted soybeans in Brazil are starting to flower

·        T-storm Weather: Heavy rains (2.75” to 5.50” vs. the norm of ~3.00”) affect central and northern soybean areas of Brazil over the next 10 days, and thunderstorms dot western Argentina until a drier pattern resumes on Sun. or Mon.

  • ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. all wheat exports remains at 10-15 mbu per week 

·        T-storm Weather: Heavy rain (1.00”-2.00”) slows Australia wheat harvest over Thu.-Sat. in the east and southeast 

ENERGY

·        Lower: CLF18, -$0.43 @ $57.56; EBF, -$0.57 @ $63.04; EBF-QCLF-$0.16; RBF-.0170; NGF, +.068;HOF, -.0229

·        EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -1.9 (+1.8); Gasoline, +0.6 (-1.5); Distillates, +0.0 (+2.7)

·        On Tuesday, cash ethanol markets were weaker: Chicago was quoted at $1.36125, down $0.0185; Basis to Chicago—New York, +11; Gulf, +7 ½; Dallas, +4; Tampa, +18; and LA, +16 ½

·        On Tue., ethanol RINs eased.: 2016’s down ¾ at 87 ½-89 ½; 2017’s off 7/8 to 88 ¼-90; & 2018’s fell 7/8 to 88 ¼-90

·        The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread widened $.0097 on Tuesday to +$.41500/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           ​;                        ​ 

  • Choice boxed beef values fell 94-cents on Tuesday to $208.63, and is unchanged compared to a week ago
  • U.S. cattle slaughter for Tuesday was estimated at 120,000 head vs. 120,000 last week and 116,000 last year 

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 54-cents on Tue. to $81.88, and is $1.81 higher vs. last week 

  • CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.19 on Tue. to $62.89.  December futures increased $1.225 & are $2.86 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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