HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mixed: CZ, -$.0150; SX, -$.0625; WZ, +$.01; KWZ, +$.0050 
• MACRO:  Global stocks mostly higher ahead of a Treasury report that will likely avoid labeling China as a currency manipulator. Asia: Mostly higher--Nikkei, +1.25%; Shanghai, -0.85%; Hang Seng, +0.07%. EUROPE: Mostly firmer--DAX, +0.28%; FTSE, -0.40%; CAC, +0.05%. WALL STREET: Futures are notably higher: DOW, +124; S&P, +12.50;NAS, +45.50.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude: -$0.66 @ $71.12; Dec Gold: +$1.70 @ $1,232; Dec $ Index, +0.016 @ 94.770.

·       Weather: In the western U.S. Corn Belt, conditions will be mostly dry through Wednesday.  Temps average near to below normal in far western areas of the region today and below normal in eastern areas.  Mostly dry conditions persist from Thursday to Saturday with near to above normal temps.  In the eastern Corn Belt, mainly dry conditions occur today-Wednesday with below to well below normal temps during this period.  Mostly dry conditions continue through Saturday with temps warming slightly

·       CZ, dn$.0150 @ $3.7675; CH, dn $.0150 @ $3.8875.  More fund buying with another 10 K purchased on Monday  

• SX, dn $.0625 @ $8.8525; SF, dn $.06 @ $8.9975.  Funds: Bot 12 K SB, 8 SBM and 4 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.55, +2, LY: $.92
• WZ, up $.0075 @ $5.2575; WH, up $.0050 @ $5.4425.  The funds opened the week buying 5 K

CORN/SORGHUM

·       December 2018 corn futures on Monday closed at $3.78 ¼, the highest settlement price for the contract since Aug. 17

·       U.S. corn crop is rated 68% Good/Excellent, unchanged from last week but above 65% last year.  Corn mature is 96% vs. 89% last year and the 5-year avg. of 91%.  Corn harvest is 39% vs. 27% last year and the 5-year avg. of 35%

·       ATI Research: Ending stocks estimate for the 2018/19 U.S. corn crop year is 1.930 bbu vs. Oct USDA est. of 1.813 bbu

·       U.S. sorghum crop is rated 55% Good/Excellent, unchanged from last week but well below last year’s 65%.  Harvest progress is 42% vs. 39% last year and the 5-year avg. of 48%   

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       November 2018 soybean futures on Mon. closed at $8.91 ½, highest settlement price for the contract since Aug. 20

·       U.S. soybean crop rated 66% Good/Excellent, down 2 points vs. last week but above 61% last year.  Dropping leaves is 95% vs. 93% last year & 5-year avg of 92%.  Soybean harvest is 38% vs. 47% last year & well behind 5-year avg. of 53%

·       ATI Research: Ending stocks est. for the 2018/19 U.S. soybean crop year is 1.077 bbu vs. Oct USDA est. of 0.885 bbu

• ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to continue to range from 15-20 mbu per week short-term

·       Nationwide U.S. winter wheat planting is 65% vs. 58% last year and the 5-year average of 67%; Michigan is at 40% vs. the 5-year avg. of 61%.  Nationwide emergence is 44% vs. 35% last year and the 41% average

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLX18, -$0.66 @ $71.12; EBZ, -$0.67 @ $80.11; EBZ-QCLX,$0.00; RBX, -0.0062; NGX, +.027; HOX, -.0161

·       Chicago ethanol was off 3/8’s Monday to $1.29875; basis levels vs Chicago, mostly firm—New York, +5/8’s @ $.12 3/8’s; Gulf, +3/8’s @ $.10675; Dallas, +1 3/8’s @ $.07 5/8’s; Tampa, +7/8’s @ $.20 1/8 and LA, -1/2 @ $.13 1/8     

·       Ethanol RINs were mixed: 2017’s, unch @ 10 -10 ½; 2018’s, -1/4 @ 11 ¼-11 ½; 2019’s, +1/4 @ 13 ½-13 ¾                

·       The Nov RBOB/Nov ethanol spread edged out $.0033 Monday to+$.63630 per gallon

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                             ​         

• Choice boxed beef values jumped $2.09 on Monday to $204.80 and are $1.59 higher compared to last week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price fell $0.43 last week to $110.52/cwt and is $0.49 lower v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.48 on Monday to $79.97 and is up 42.73vs. a week ago
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $30.91/cwt vs. last week’s $35.55, last month’s $35.77 & last year’s $36.82

Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather