HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mixed:  CZ, -$.0150; SX, -$.05; WZU, +$.0475; KWZ, +$.06
• MACRO:  U.S. may impose 10% tariff on PRC goods, rather than 25%; China may opt out of trade talks. ASIA: Mostly Weaker: Nikkei, closed; Shanghai, -1.11%; Hang Seng, -1.30%.  EUROPE: Lower: DAX, -0.43%; FTSE, -0.27%; CAC, -0.32%.  WALL STREET: Futures are negative: DOW, -30; S&P, -4.00; NAS, -13.00.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude: +$0.55 @ $69.54; Dec Gold: +$1.40 @ $1,202; Dec $ Index, -0.185 @ 94.320.  DELY: SBM, 11; SBO, 100; C, 70; HRW, 1; SB, 76; SRW, 256

·        T-storm Weather: Most of the central U.S. stays warm & dry today.  Changes occur from west to east Tue.-Thu. as cooler air sags southward & numerous waves of energy flow east, triggering multiple heavy thunderstorms & 1.50”-3.00” of rain for northwest third to half of Corn Belt & adjacent corn & soybeans of Plains.  Most areas to east & south receive little to no rain through at least Thu., except for light rain today in southeast IN, eastern KY, & OH as remnant circulation of Hurricane Florence exits

·       CZ, dn $.0150 @ $3.5025; CH, dn $.0125 @ $3.6250.  The funds closed out the week buying 1 K           

• SX, dn $.05 @ $8.2550; SF, dn $.0425 @ $8.40.  Funds: Sold 2 SB, 7 SBM & even on SBO.  Board Crush: $1.45, -12, LY: $.89
• WZ, up $.0475 @ $5.1625; WH, up $.05 @ $5.3525.  Fund buying was estimated at 5 K on Friday    

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather: Next week (Sep. 24-30), an unusual weather pattern is not expected as climate further cools and storm systems pass every few days, triggering showers in varying areas at varying times, but unlikely heavy rainfall

• ATI Research: USDA Crop Progress report—Rapid development of the 2018 U.S. corn crop reflected in corn mature.  On average, corn mature increases 15% from Sep. 9-16 to 36%; however, corn mature was already at 35% as of Sep. 9

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 45.6 mbu needed; 30.1 last week.  Milo—3.4 needed; 0.07 last week

·       Consultant: Early planting of the 2018/19 corn crop is underway in northern Argentina as well as in northern Santa Fe

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather: Dryness favors early soybean harvest this week in eastern U.S. Corn Belt; light rain arrives Fri.-Sun.

• ATI Research: USDA Crop Progresst—Rapid development of 2018 U.S. soybean crop reflected in dropping leaves.  On avg., dropping leaves increases 17% from Sep. 9-16 to 36%; however, dropping leaves was already at 31% as of Sep. 9
• Consultant: Currently very dry in Mato Grosso, Brazil; only soybeans that would be planted would be under irrigation

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 39.8 mbu needed; 34.0 last week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 21.5 mbu needed; 15.48last week

·       ATI Research: In Argentina, 0.50”-1.50” of rain over the next week affects ~70% of wheat and breaks dryness

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLV18, +$0.55 @ $69.54; EBX, +$0.70 @ $78.79; EBX-QCLX, +$0.15; RBV, +0.0224; NGV, +.020; HOV, +.0127

·       Cash ethanol remain mixed: Chicago was quoted at $1.28125, up $.0050; Basis to Chicago were generally firmer—New York, +$0.0935; Gulf, +$0.0935; Dallas, +$0.0735; Tampa, +$0.2035; and LA, +$0.2685

·       Ethanol RINs had 2017’s ¼ weaker 14 ¾ -15 ¼; 2018’s were also ¼ lower at 20 ¾ - 21 ¼   

·       The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol spread slipped $.0196 on Friday for a +$.6993 per gallon close 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                 ​;     

• Choice boxed beef values firmed 23-cents on Friday to $204.27 but are still down $2.29 vs. last week    
• Cash cattle sales started to increase on Friday afternoon, with trading in the North pegged at $172
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $3.06 on Friday to $73.17 and is $6.08 higher than a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index increased $1.77 on Fri. to $51.85.  October futures firmed $0.55 and are $4.375 above the index 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather