HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mixed: CZ, +$.0075; SX, unch; WZ, -$.02; KWZ, -$.0150 
• MACRO:  Hefty U.S. rally Tuesday lifts overseas markets; futures point to lower Wall Street opening. Asia: Higher--Nikkei, +1.29%; Shanghai,+0.60%; Hang Seng, +0.07%.  EUROPE: Mostly firmer--DAX, -0.32%;FTSE, +0.20%; CAC, +0.02%.  WALL STREET: Futures are lower: DOW,-103; S&P, -9.00; NAS, -29.25.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude: -$0.38 @ $71.54; Dec Gold: -$0.80 @ $1,230; Dec $ Index, +0.122 @ 94.870.

·       Weather: Dry weather continues in the western U.S. Corn Belt through Thursday.  Temperatures average near to below normal today, then near to above normal Thursday-Friday.  Mostly dry weather through Monday with near normal temperatures.  Dry weather also continues in the eastern Corn Belt through Thursday.  Temperatures average near to below normal today and near to above normal Thursday-Friday.  Light, mixed precip is possible Friday-Saturday; below normal temperatures for the weekend

·       CZ, up $.0075 @ $3.76; CH, up $.0075 @ $3.88. Fund selling was modest yesterday at 1 K  

• SX, unch @ $8.8475; SF, dn $.0050 @ $8.9875.  Funds: Sold 3 SB, 3 SBM and 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.51, -4, LY: $.92
• WZ, dn $.0225 @ $5.2125; WH, dn $.02 @ $5.4150.  Estimated managed money account selling at 1 K on Tuesday

CORN/SORGHUM

• Weather: NWS forecast Oct. 22-26: below/much below-normal precip central/eastern Corn Belt, below normal temps
• ATI Research: Our current bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is 45-55 mbu per week

·       Consultant: Record fast Brazil soybean planting pace = early safrinha(double crop) corn planting & above avg. yields

·       Ethanol margins: $0.08 per gallon—dn from $0.14 last week & well below $0.39 in 2017.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

·       Through Oct. 16, the 2018 crop insurance harvest price for December 2018 corn futures has averaged $3.7525   

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: Active U.S. soybean harvest is expected this week.  The 5-year average increase in harvest progress from Oct. 14-21 is 16%, with the largest gain since 2009 noted in 2017 (20%)

·       Consultant: Record fast Brazil soybean planting pace; AgRural est. is 20% at the end of last week v. 5-year avg. of 10%

• Through Oct. 16, the 2018 crop insurance harvest price for November 2018 soybean futures has averaged $8.6671

·       Weather: NWS forecasting dry weather this week across Midwest SRW areas; active planting of winter wheat likely

·       Ideas Australia’s wheat crop may fall another 1.5 MMT from the USDA est. of 18.5 due to ongoing dryness in east

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLX18, -$0.38 @ $71.54; EBZ, -$0.28 @ $81.13; EBZ-QCLX,+$0.15; RBX, -0.0006; NGX, +.033; HOX, -.0053

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +2.2 (-2.1); Gasoline, -1.1 (-3.4); Distillates, -1.3 (-0.2).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.043 mbpd (range: 1.030-1.050).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 23.899 mb (range 23.723-24.071)

·       Chicago ethanol lost 2 1/8 cents to $1.2775 yesterday; basis levels vs Chicago were mixed—New York, -1/8 @ $.1225; Gulf, -3/8’s @ $.1025; Dallas, +1/8 @ $$.0775; Tampa, +1/8 @ $.2025 and LA, +2 5/8’s @ $.1575     

·       Ethanol RINs were steady/lower: 2017’s, -1/4 @ 9 ½-10 ½; 2018’s, unch @ 11-11 ½; 2019’s, -1/2 @ 13-13 ½                 

·       The Nov RBOB/Nov ethanol spread widened $.0570 to +$.69330 per gallon

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                 &nbs​p;    

• Choice boxed beef values eased 19-cents on Tuesday to $204.61 but are still up $1.76 vs. a week ago
• Estimates for Oct. 19 USDA Cattle on Feed: Oct. 1 on feed, 106.3%; Placed in Sep, 100.0%; Marketed in Sep, 96.7%
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.48 on Tuesday to $78.49 but is still $1.14 higher vs. last week 
• CME Lean Hog Index down $0.16 on Tue. to $68.59.  December futures up $0.125 but are $11.715 below the index

Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather