HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—Mixed: CZ, down $.0050; SX, up $.02; WZU, up $.03; KWZ, up $.0150
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MACRO: Last week’s jobs report said to give stocks a positive start; Italy crisis lessens in Europe but trade worries persist in Asia. ASIA: Mostly lower: Nikkei, +0.30%; Shanghai, -1.21%; Hang Seng, -1.33%. EUROPE: Firmer: DAX, +0.056%;FTSE, +0.06%; CAC, +0.16%. WALL STREET: Futures are positive: DOW, +89; S&P, +10.75; NAS, +41.50. EXTERNALS: Oct crude: +$0.32 @ $68.07; Dec Gold: -$1.40 @ $1,199; Dec $ Index, -0.044 @ 94.895. DELY: SBO, 439; SB, 22; SRW, 12
· T-storm Weather: Except for a few thunderstorms in / near MN and ND over the next week, dry and unseasonably-mild upper-level high pressure dominates the central U.S., producing maximums in the 70s, 80s, and 90s most days. Therefore, the coverage and intensity of wetness diminishes each day going forward, improving conditions for corn / soybean harvesting and winter wheat planting into mid-month.
· CZ, dn $.0050 @ $3.6650; CH, down $.0050 @ $3.7875. Friday trading had the funds even
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SX, up $.02 @ $8.46; SF, up $.0175 @ $8.59. Funds: Bot 3 SB, 4 SBM, sold 3 SBO. Board Crush: $1.58, +9, LY: $.92
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WZ, up $.03 @ $5.1425; WH, up $.0275 @ $5.3425. Fund selling continued on Friday, with 3 K liquidated
CORN/SORGHUM
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Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report to peg U.S. corn Good/Excellent 65-67% v. 67% last week and 61% last year
· T-storm Weather: Temps return to near-normal levels starting Sep. 17-18. Rain also returns; 0.50”-1.00” is forecast Sep. 17-24, incl. pockets of higher amounts in/near IA & MN, but lesser totals with westward extent through Plains
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 45.2 mbu needed; 52.5 last week. Milo—3.4 needed; 0.03 last week
· USDA WASDE report Sep. 12: Avg. trade guess 2018 U.S. corn crop: 14.506 bbu (range 14.397-14.607), 14.586 in Aug.
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USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn carryout--17/18, 2.014 bbu (2.027 in Aug.); 18/19, 1.590 (1.684 in Aug.)
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report to peg U.S. soybean Good/Excellent 64-66% v. 66% last week & 60% last year
· T-storm Weather: Conditions for U.S. soybean harvesting continually improve this week, especially from maximums in the 70s-80s and seasonable to low humidities
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 39.6 mbu needed; 28.3 last week
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 21.3 mbu needed; 14.4 last week
· T-storm Weather: Much drier than normal weather is forecast for Australia’s wheat growing areas over the next 7 to 10 days. Some showers develop in the east in 10 to 14 days
ENERGY
· Firm: CLV18, +$0.32 @ $68.07; EBX, +$0.53 @ $77.36; EBX-QCLX, +$0.18; RBV, +0.0114; NGV, -.007; HOV, +.0062
· On Friday, cash ethanol markets were mostly higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.28875, up $0.00375; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.08125; Gulf, +$0.09125; Dallas, +$0.03125; Tampa, +$0.15125; and LA, +$0.22625
· Ethanol RINs were firmer on Friday: 2017’s increased ½ to 15 ¼-16 ¼; and 2018’s added ½ to 21 ½-22
· The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol spread eased widened $.0180 on Friday to $.6780 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef values plummeted $2.19 on Friday to $206.56 and are $3.13 lower vs. a week ago
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Light cash cattle trading developed on Friday, with prices generally steady to $1 higher than the previous week
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USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 51-cents on Friday to $67.09 and is up $1.19 vs. last week
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CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.09 on Fri. to $46.01. October futures were up $0.675 & are $9.64 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather