HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mixed: CZ: down $.0150; SX: down $.0225; WZ: steady; KWZ: up $.0050  

·       MACRO:  Though most indicators are positive, mixed signals—uncertainty in Catalonia; disappointing UK construction data; Brexit worries contrast sharp gains in Asia. ASIA—Firmer:  Nikkei, +1.05; Shanghai, Closed; Hang Seng, +2.25%.  EUROPE: Steady to firmer:  DAX,unch; FTSE,+0.08%; CAC, +0.23%.   WALL STREET—Futures are again positive—DOW, +27; S&P, +1.00; NAS, +3.75.  EXTERNALS:  $ Index: +.090 @ 93.495; Gold: -$2.20 @ $1,271; Dec crude:-$0.15 @ $50.75/bl.  Del’y: SBM, 101; SBO, 97

• T-storm Weather: In the U.S., widespread coverage of heavy rain focuses on the Corn Belt and Plains over the next five to seven days, further increasing soil moisture in HRW wheat and western corn / soybean areas, while breaking drying in some SRW wheat and eastern corn / soybean areas; rain focuses on the northwest half through Wed. or Thu., then shifts east.  A drier and seasonably-cooler period follows, possibly resulting in the first frost of the year in northern growing areas in one week or so.   
• CZ, down $.0150 @ $3.50; CH, down $.0175 @ $3.6250.  The funds began the week selling 8 K  
• SX, down $.0275 @ $9.5450; SF, down $.0275 @ $9.65.  Funds:  Sold 6 SB; 4 SBM; 5 SBO.  Board Crush: $.78, +3; LY: $.71
• WZ, up $.0025 @ $4.45; WH, up $.0050 @ $4.3975. The funds continue to liquidate with Monday’s total at 6 K  

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn crop is rated 63% Good/Excellent, up two points from last week but well below 73% last year.  Corn mature is 68% vs. 84% last year and the 5-year avg. of 78%.  Corn harvest is 17% vs. 23% last year and the 5-year avg. of 26%

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2017 U.S. corn crop is 168.8 bpa versus September USDA est. of 169.9

·       U.S. sorghum crop is rated 64% Good/Excellent versus 65%, unchanged from last week but below 66% last year

• T-storm Weather: Potential exists for first significant frost of the season to unfold in northern U.S. areas of the Corn Belt & Plains next week (within next Mon.-Wed. mornings), but large-scale killing event is not expected for most corn

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean crop is rated 60% Good/Excellent vs. 60% last week and 74% last year.  Dropping leaves is 80% vs. 81% last year & the 5-year avg of 78%.  Soybean harvest is 22% vs. 24% last year and behind the 5-year avg. of 26%

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2017 U.S. soybean crop is 48.6 bpa vs. September USDA est. of 49.9

• T-storm Weather: Exact timing of this week’s rain is difficult to determine, but generally focuses on northwest half of central U.S. through Wed.-Thu., while leaving southeast half dry.  Rains shifts eastward & southward over Thu.-Mon.
• ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to continue to range from 15-20 mbu per week short-term
• U.S. winter wheat planting is 36% vs. 41% last year and the 5-year avg. of 43%; Kansas at 21% vs. 5-year avg. of 39%

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLZ17, -$0.15 @ $50.75; EBZ, -$0.19 @ $55.93;EBZ-QCLZ, -$.05; RBX, -.0038; NGX, +.008; HO​X, -.0135

·       Cash ethanol markets were mostly weaker on Monday: Chicago down 3 ½; New York off 2 ¾; Gulf, Dallas and Tampa fell 3;  but LA was steady at $1.68 per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs rebounded on Monday: 2016’s and 2017’s firmed 3 to 70-71

·       The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol spread lost $.0252 yesterday to settle at +$.0730/gallon  

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        &​nbsp;            

• Choice boxed beef values increased 60-cents on Monday to $197.22, and are up $3.26 vs. a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $0.49 v. last week at $108.01/cwt, but $5.36 higher v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 40-cents on Monday to $72.33, and is 72-cents lower vs. last week

• Current nearby board hog crush value is $34.74/cwt vs. last week’s $31.57, last month’s $33.02 & last year’s $20.16 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather