HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—Mixed: CU, +$.0250; SU, -$.0725; WU, +$.0650; KWU, +$.07
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MACRO: Fed leaves prime unchanged; says economy is strong but trade rift back in the forefront. Asia—Definitely lower: Nikkei, -1.03%; Shanghai, -2.03%; Hang Seng, -2.21%. EUROPE: Like-wise: DAX, -1.77%; FTSE, -1.09%; CAC, -0.85%. WALL STREET: Futures are not pretty: DOW, -160; S&P, -16.00; NAS, -51.75. EXTERNALS: Sep crude: -$0.64 @ $67.02; Aug Gold: -$0.90 @ $1,2173; Dec $ Index, +.327 @ 94.345. DEL’Y: SBO, 1,296; SB, 1,237
· T-storm Weather: Coolness breaks & heat expands from west to east over Thu.-Sat. Heat then breaks Sun.-Mon. as a system moves across Canada & drags cooler air southward, forcing the core of heat to shift further west, leaving most corn & soybeans seasonable next week (Aug. 6-10) with heat confined to far-western corn & soybeans. Most rain occurs within Sat.-Tue. as heat expands & contracts; 0.33"-1.33" is expected with highest totals north (MN & WI) & lowest totals south (AR-KS-MO)
· CU, up $.0250 @ $3.6750; CZ, up $.0250 @ $3.82. Temperature forecasts moderate, funds sell 8 K
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SU, dn $.0725 @ $8.8425; SX, dn $.0725 @ $8.9450. Funds: Sold 8 SB, 6 SBM, 4 SBO. Board Crush: $1.67, +$.04, LY: $.91
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WU, up $.0650 @ $5.6450; WZ, up $.0675 @ $5.8550. The funds bought 5 K, with support coming from higher overseas values
CORN/SORGHUM
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT. Trade expects 12-24 mbu for 17/18 corn and 16-31 mbu for 18/19
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T-storm Weather: It is unclear whether heat across U.S. corn will expand into a wider areain 10 days or so or systems in Canada will again pull cooler air southward, which will be a key forecast issue going forward
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ATI Research: The new range for near-term U.S. sorghum exports is between 0-300 K mbu/week compared to an average of 3.9 mbu/week for the upcoming 4-week period last year. Our bias is from 0-1 to 0-1/2 mbu per week
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Ethanol grind: Total of 1,064,000 barrels/day for week end July 27—dn 10 thou v. prior week but up 6.2% v. last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales report. Trade expects 6-18 mbu for 17/18 soybeans and 11-26 for 18/19; soymeal, 50-250 K MT for 17/18 and 0-100 for 18/19; soyoil, 5-20 K MT for 17/18 and 0-15 for 18/19
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T-storm Weather: It will take several days to resolve, but after Aug. 7 a drier period most likely develops/continues for U.S. soybeans across Corn Belt as the upper-level high prevents energy from moving directly across key areas
· Export Sales report. Trade expects 7-17 mbu for 18/19 all wheat
· T-storm Weather: Light rain keeps soil moisture for wheat in Western Australia adequate, aids South Australia and Victoria, but misses Queensland and northern New South Wales where the crop turns sensitive soon
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLU18, -$0.64 @ $67.02; EBV, -$0.40 @ $71.99; EBV-QCLV, +$0.21; RBU,-.0130; NGU, -.012; HOU, -.0074
· On Wednesday, cash ethanol markets were weaker: Chicago was quoted at $1.44750, down $0.0175; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.1025; Gulf, +$0.1275; Dallas, +$0.0675; Tampa, +$0.1875; and LA, +$0.2425
· Ethanol RINs were stronger on Wednesday: 2017’s up 1 7/8 to 15 ½-17; and 2018’s gained 1 5/8 to 22-23
· The September RBOB/August ethanol spread fell $.0079 to $.6001/gallon at mid-week
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
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Choice boxed beef values fell 52-cents on Wednesday to $203.75, and are 89-cents lower vs. a week ago
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The cash cattle trade remained untested Wednesday with some asking prices of $115 countered with bids of $110
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USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined 63-cents on Wed. to $72.73, and is $4.82 lower vs. last week
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CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.82 on Wed. to $69.98. August futures were down $0.875, & are $9.73 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather