HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—Mixed: CU, unch; SU, -$.12; WU, +$.05; KWU, +$.0475
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MACRO: More tariffs on Chinese imports, 25% on up to $200 billion?. Asia—Mostly Lower: Nikkei, +0.86%; Shanghai, -1.81%; Hang Seng, -0.85%. EUROPE: Weaker: DAX, -0.35%; FTSE, -1.08%; CAC, -0.04%. WALL STREET: Futures—Mostly lower: DOW, -31; S&P, -1.50; NAS, +17.25. EXTERNALS: Sep crude: -$0.61 @ $68.15;Aug Gold: -$0.60 @ $1,223; Dec $ Index, +.190 @ 94.055. DEL’Y: SBO, 1,112; SB, 1,227
· T-storm Weather: Coolness prevails in all areas through today, followed by rapid and marked warming from west to east over Thu.-Sat. Very warm and hot weather then last for at least one week, most notably in the Plains and western Corn Belt where maximums frequently reach the mid- and upper-90s. Widely-scattered showers dot the Corn Belt today. Some thunderstorms also form in Corn Belt Aug. 4-8, but high coverage of heavy rain is not expected; wettest north (MN, WI) & driest southwest (MO)
· CU, unch @ $3.7225; CZ, unch @ $3.8650. Hotter, dryer = Funds buy 15 K
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SU, dn $.12 @ $8.9675; SX, dn $.1225 @ $9.0675. Funds: Bot 18 SB, 6 SBM, 6 SBO. Board Crush: $1.63, -$.08 LY: $.92
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WU, up $.05 @ $5.5875 WZ, up $.05 @$5.7825. The funds bought 7 K, easing trade concerns & European crop difficulties   ;
CORN/SORGHUM
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ATI Research: Outlook for U.S. corn exports next 4 weeks dropped about 2 mbu to an average of 54.9 mil per week. The new range is 50.6-58.1. Our est. slipped again to 45-55 as Brazilian loadings are expected to accelerate modestly
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T-storm Weather: Inherent uncertainty exists more than 10 days out, but it remains most probable for heat to continue in some fashion for U.S. corn production areas, especially with westward extent nearest the upper-level high
· Consultant: Argentina corn crop estimated is lowered 1.0 MMT to 31.0 MMT with a neutral to slightly lower bias
· Ethanol margins: $0.21 per gallon—down vs. $0.25 last week and below $0.36 in 2017. EIA report at 9:30 am CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· T-storm Weather: Setup past Aug. 8 will take time to determine but most likely scenario for soybeans from Plains through southern Corn Belt/Delta is limited precip, marking an extended period of below-normal rain, especially west
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ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean export est. is 25-30 mbu/wk on ideas program will be devoid of China business
· ATI Research: The outlook for U.S. wheat exports the next four weeks is 10-15 mbu per week vs. 22.2 mbu last year
· T-storm Weather: Light rain next 7-10 days for Western Australia/South Australia/Victoria wheat; not in Queensland
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLU18, -$0.61 @ $68.15; EBV, -$0.67 @ $73.54; EBV-QCLV, -$0.12; RBU,-.0115; NGU, -.019; HOU, -.0223
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -2.2 (+5.6); Gasoline, -2.0 (-0.8); Distillates, +0.2 (+2.9). Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.066 mil barrel/day (range 1.05-1.080). Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 21.79 mil barrels (range 21.55-22.00)
· On Tuesday, cash ethanol markets were higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.4650, up $0.0125; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.10; Gulf, +$0.1175; Dallas, +$0.0525; Tampa, +$0.18; and LA, +$0.235
· Ethanol RINs were mixed on Tuesday: 2017’s down 3/8 at 14 ¼-14 ½; but 2018’s firmed 1 ¼ to 20 ¾-21
· The September RBOB/August ethanol spread shed $.0282 yesterday, narrowing to$.6791/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
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Choice boxed beef values declined 45-cents on Tuesday to $204.27, and are down 38-cents compared to last week
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August live cattle futures on Tuesday closed at $107.675, the lowest settlement price for the contract since July 17
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USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 50-cents on Tuesday to $73.36, and is down $4.15 vs. a week ago
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CME Lean Hog Index fell $1.37 Tue. to $70.80. August futures were $2.175 lower, & are $9.675 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather