HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—Mixed: CU, +$.0050; SQ, +$.0525; WU, -$.0225; KWU, -$.0325
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MACRO: Trade talk progress being made with EU, Mexico and Canada; not so with China as U.S. chipmaker Quacomm does not get go ahead to buy NXP Semiconductors. Asia—Mostly higher: Nikkei, +0.56%; Shanghai, -0.30%; Hang Seng, +0.08%. EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.42%; FTSE, +0.56%; CAC, +0.25%. WALL STREET: Futures—Positive: DOW, +13; S&P, +4.00; NAS, +18.50. EXTERNALS: Sep crude: -$0.22 @ $69.39; Aug Gold: -$7.70 @ $1,218; Dec $ Index, +.136 @ 94.265
· T-storm Weather: Cool weather dominates through early next week. A system moves along the southern edge of coolness and produces significant rainfall in the central / southern Plains, Delta, and southern Corn Belt over Fri.-Tue. (Jul. 27 - 31), but leaves northern areas of the Corn Belt and Pains mostly dry. A warmer period follows as next week progresses, but the first bout of warmth Wed.-Thu. will be quickly eroded by a cool front that passes Thu.-Fri. (Aug. 2-3)
· CU, up $.0050 @ $3.62; CZ, up $.0025 @ $3.76. Funds bought 5 K—EU trade deal and Europe/Black Sea crop concerns
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SQ, up $.0525 @ $8.6625; SU, up $.0475 @ $8.71. Funds: Bot 3 SB, 2 SBM, Sold 1 SBO. Board Crush: $1.80, +$.02; LY: $.87
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WU, dn $.0225 @ $5.3425; WZ, dn $.0250 @ $5.5425. Funds bought 2 K, further reductions to the EU crop
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: Combined unshipped export sales of U.S. old-crop and new-crop corn as of July 19 stood at 634 mbu, which is up 60% from 397 mbu at this time a year ago
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T-storm Weather: A warmer period is likely to become more established over the first week of August for U.S. corn, though it will also shift the main storm track into the Corn Belt, thereby generating occasional thunderstorm clusters
· Consultant: Argentina corn production estimate is steady at 32.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias going forward
· December 2018 corn futures on Thu. closed at $3.75 ¾; one year ago, December 2017 corn futures settled at $3.87 ¾
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Combined unshipped export sales of U.S. old-crop and new-crop soybeans as of July 19 stood at 601 mbu, which is up 31% from 458 mbu this time a year ago
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T-storm Weather: Dryness affects soybeans across northern third of Corn Belt/Plains over the next week. Rain totals of 0.75”-1.50” affect southern third of beans through Mon.-Tue.; 0.25”-0.75” affect middle third through July 31
· ATI Research: Unshipped export sales of U.S. all wheat as of July 19 stood at 154 mbu, which is 26% lower from 209 mbu this time a year ago. Largest declines by class are being seen for HRW (-38%) and SRW (-33%); HRS is down 4%
· T-storm Weather: In Australia, drought intensifies next 7-10 days for wheat in/near Queensland and New South Wales
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLU18, -$0.22 @ $69.39; EBU, -$0.31 @ $74.23; EBU-QCLU, -$0.09; RBU,-.0003; NGU, +.002; HOU, -.0031
· On Thursday, cash ethanol markets were higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.44375, up $0.01375; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.10875; Gulf, +$0.11625; Dallas, +$0.09125; Tampa, +$0.21125; and LA, +$0.31125
· Ethanol RINs were firmer on Thursday: 2017’s increased 1 ¼ to 14-15; and 2018’s up ¾ at 20-21
· The August RBOB/August ethanol spread gained $.0192, closing at $.7173/gallonyesterday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
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Choice boxed beef values eased firmed 27-cents on Thursday to $204.91, and are up 42-cents vs. a week ago
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Dressed steer weight for week end July 14: 867 lbs, unchanged v. last week, 861.5 for the 4-week avg. & 865 last year
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USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $2.48 on Thu. to $75.07, and is $6.69 lower compared to last week
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CME Lean Hog Index was $0.80 lower on Thu. at $74.43. August futures fell $1.50, and are $9.53 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
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