HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mixed: CN, +$.0050; SN, +$.0475; WN, -$.0125; KWK, -$.0125
• MACRO:  Unease over a possible U.S. withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear treaty/reduced oil supplies on prices/global growth  Asia—Higher: Nikkei, +0.18%;Shanghai, +0.80%; Hang Seng, +1.36%.  EUROPE: Mostly weaker: DAX, -0.46%; FTSE,+0.08%; CAC, -0.43%.  WALL STREET: Futures are Lower: DOW, -38; S&P, -5.25; NAS,-11.25.  EXTERNALS: June crude: -$0.88 @ $69.85; Aug Gold: -$4.90 @ $1,316; $ Index: +.278 @ 91.97.  Dely: SBM, 0; SBO, 0; RR, 6; C, 314; ETOH, 0 HRW, 0; O, 0; SB, 68

·       T-storm Weather: Three waves of energy produce 1.00" to 2.00" of rain across the northern half of the central U.S. over the next week.  Less rain occurs to the south, but central and southern areas likely turn wetter next week as waves of energy pass within a mild pattern (including the HRW wheat belt).  Note that temperatures average considerably above-normal over the next two weeks, despite several days of coolness in northern areas of the Corn Belt and Plains later this week and weekend

·       CN, down $.0050 @ $4.0125; CU, down $.0075 @ $4.0925.  The funds were heavily sellers on Monday, 20 K                  

• SN, up $.0475 @ $10.1625; SQ, up $.05 @ $10.1975. Funds: Sold 15 SB, 12 SBM, bot 2 SBO. Board crush:  $1.70, +2; LY: $.88
• WN, dn $.0125 @ $5.1025; WU, dn $.0125 @ $5.2750.  The funds opened the week selling 8 K                            

CORN/SORGHUM​

• USDA estimates U.S. corn planting progress as of May 6 at 39% vs. 45% last year and the 5-year average of 44%
• T-storm Weather: Most rain holds until May 15-20 in Brazil second-crop (safrinha) corn areas (southern ~40% of crop)

·       Consultant: Brazil corn crop is lowered 2.0 MMT this week to 84.0 MMT with a lower bias going forward

·       USDA WASDE report on May 10: Avg. trade guess 17/18 U.S. corn carryout, 2.176 bbu; avg. guess 18/19, 1.631 bbu

• USDA WASDE report on May 10: Avg. guess for 2018 U.S. corn production is 14.091 bbu (range 13.921-14.360)
• USDA WASDE May 10: Avg. guess 17/18 Brazil corn crop is 88.6 MMT (range 83.9-92.0); Argentina, 32.2 (31.0-33.0)

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• USDA estimates U.S. soybean planting progress as of May 6 at 15% vs. 13% last year and the 5-year average of 13%

·       USDA WASDE report May 10: Avg. trade guess 17/18 U.S. soybean carryout, 0.546 bbu; avg. guess 18/19, 0.533 bbu

• USDA WASDE report on May 10: Avg. guess for 2018 U.S. soybean production is 4.324 bbu (range 4.110-4.850)
• USDA WASDE: Avg. guess 17/18 Brazil soybean crop is 116.3 MMT (range 114.9-119.0); Argentina, 38.4 (36.0-40.0)
• USDA estimates U.S. spring wheat planting progress as of May 6 at 30% vs. 51% last year & the 5-year average of 51%

·       USDA WASDE report May 10: Avg. trade guess 17/18 U.S. wheat carryout, 1.068 bbu; avg. guess 18/19, 0.932 bbu

• USDA WASDE report on May 10: Avg. guess for 2018 U.S. winter wheat production is 1.176 bbu (range 1.062-1.304)

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLM18, -$0.88@$69.85; EBN, -$0.67@$75.50; EBN-QCLN, +$0.18; RBM,-.0191; NGM, +.022; HOM, -.0176

·       On Monday, cash ethanol markets were weaker: Chicago was quoted at $1.4625, down $0.0175; Basis to Chicago—New York, +12 ¼; Gulf, +9 ¼; Dallas, +5 ¾; Tampa, +17 ¾; and LA, +25 ¾

·       On Monday, ethanol RINs were higher: 2017’s up ¼ to 30-32 ½; and 2018’s increased ¾ to 34-36

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol spread recovered most of Friday’s narrowing, up $.0410 to +$.65700/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    &nbs​p;                

• Choi​ce boxed beef values firmed 84-cents on Monday to $229.14, and are $4.72 higher compared to last week 
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $1.08 v. last week at $124.81/cwt, but is dn $19.79 v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value jumped $2.40 on Monday to $71.10, and is $2.80 higher vs. a week ago
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $39.78/cwt vs. last week’s $41.16, last month’s $40.95 & last year’s $45.67

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather