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MARKET TREND Mixed CN, unch, SN, Up 2, WN, Down 4

May 3, 2018 07:12 AM

Shonkwiler, Larry

Attachments5:35 AM (1 hour ago)
 
to MorningJim
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Mixed: CN, unch; SN, +$.0225; WN, -$.04; KWK, -$.0525
  • MACRO:  Fed says it will continue gradually raising rates as inflation firms.  Asia—Mostly lower: Nikkei, -0.16%A; Shanghai, +0.65%; Hang Seng, -1.34%.  EUROPE: Lower: DAX, -0.31%; FTSE, -0.10%; CAC, -0.30%.  WALL STREET: Futures are positive:DOW, +45; S&P, +5.50; NAS, +11.75.  EXTERNALS: June crude: +$0.14 @ $68.07; Aug Gold: +$6.60 @ $1,318.  Dely: SBM, 4; SBO, 280; RR, 6; C, 478; HRW, 86; O, 0; SB, 68

·       T-storm Weather: A strong system causes heavy rain to affect southeast two-thirds of U.S. Corn Belt & adjacent areas of the central & southern Plains through Fri.; 1.00"-2.00" common with pockets of higher amounts.  Outside of a few showers this weekend within northeast half of Corn Belt, drying generally continues/follows for 4-5 days. Temps remain warm for southeast half of the central U.S. next 2-3 days, then turn seasonably-cooler in Corn Belt before a warmer pattern begins in 10 days or so

·       CN, unch @ $4.05; CU, unch @ $4.1275.  The funds bought 2 K at mid-week                

  • SN, up $.0225 @ $10.4525; SQ, up $.0175 @ $10.4750. Funds: Sold 5 SB, 4 SBM, bot 3 SBO. Board crush:  $1.75, +6; LY: $.84
  • WN, dn $.04 @ $5.2275; WU, dn $.0425 @ $5.38.  The funds were even inWednesday’s trading                

    ​  CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 28-39 for 17/18 corn

  • T-storm Weather: In Brazil, drought expands & intensifies within second-crop (safrinha) corn belt over next 10 days as dry, sunny, & hot weather persist, causing coverage of 14-day dryness to envelop ~100% of the crop next week
  • Consultant: The current estimate of Brazil corn production is 86.0 MMT, with the minimum estimate at 80.0 MMT and the maximum estimate at 90.0

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,032,000 barrels/day for week end April 27—up 47 thou v. last week and up 4.7% v. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-22 mbu for 17/18 soybeans; soymeal, 150-350 K MT; soyoil, 8-25 

·       ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports is 15-20 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, stage is set for multiple heavy thunderstorms next 10 days, culminating in 2.00"-4.00" across a wide area with pockets of higher totals likely central & north.  Soybean harvest in affected areas slows/stops

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 0-11 mbu for 17/18 all wheat and 4-11 mbu for 18/19

  • T-storm Weather: Drier than normal conditions are forecast for the entire U.S. spring wheat production belt over the next 10 to 14 days

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLM18+$0.14@$68.07; EBN, +$0.06@$73.42; EBN-QCLN, -$0.08RBM,+.0012NGM, +.006HOM, -.0021

·       On Wednesday, cash ethanol markets were mostly weaker: Chicago was quoted at $1.43, down $0.00375; Basis to Chicago—New York, +11 ¼; Gulf, +9 ½; Dallas, +7; Tampa, +21; and LA, +28

·       On Wednesday, ethanol RINs were lower: 2017’s down 7/8 at 26 ½-27 ¼; and 2018’s fell ½ to 30 ½-32 ½

·       The June RBOB/May ethanol spread lost $.0086 Wednesday to close at+$.65080/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    &nb​sp;                

  • Cho​ice boxed beef values were 87-cents higher on Wednesday at $227.30, and are up $8.77 vs. a week ago
  • Over the past 9 trading days, choice boxed beef has gained $15.96 (7.6%)
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.53 on Wed. to $69.77, & is up $2.04 compared to last week
  • CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.21 on Wed. to $62.66.  May futures fell $0.55 but are still $4.24 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

    



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