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MARKET TREND Mixed CK, Up 1, SK, Down 4, WK, Up 3

April 27, 2018 07:12 AM

Shonkwiler, Larry

Attachments5:28 AM (1 hour ago)
 
to MorningJim
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Mixed: CK, -$.0025; SK, -$.0450; WK, +$.0150; KWK, +$.0125
  • MACRO:  North/South Korea summit seems to go well; BOJ gives short term rates at a negative .1%; overseas markets followed Wall Street Higher. Asia—Higher:Nikkei, +0.66%; Shanghai, +0.23%; Hang Seng, +0.91%.  EUROPE: Higher: DAX,+0.64%; FTSE, +0.63%; CAC, +0.19%.  WALL STREET: Futures are mostly weaker:DOW, -79; S&P, -5.00; NAS, +9.00.  EXTERNALS: Aug Gold+$0.40 @ $1,325; June crude: -$0.22 @ $67.97; $ Index, +0.165 @ 90.625

·       T-storm Weather: Mainly dry weather dominates Corn Belt through at least Mon.  Moderate/heavy rain follows May 1-4, likely producing 1.00”-2.00” in most of Corn Belt, Delta & adjacent area of central/southern Plains; scattered 0.25”-0.75” in northern & western Plains (incl. spring, HRW wheat).  Rain starts Tue. in northern Plains/northwest Corn Belt, then affects a wide area Wed.-Thu. before ending Thu.-Fri.  Temps much cooler than normal thru Sun., then turn sharply warmer from west to east for 2-5 days

·       CK, dn $.0025 @ $3.8575; CN, unch @ $3.9525.  The funds bought an estimated 3 K yesterday               

  • SK, dn $.0450 @ $10.2350; SN, dn $.0425 @ $10.3525. Funds: bot 1 SB, 3 SBM, 1 SBO. Board crush:  $1.45, +6; LY: $.86
  • WK, up $.0150 @ $4.8225; WN, up $.0050 @ $4.90.  Fund selling amounted to 4 Kon Thursday                 

        CORN/SORGHUM

​ ·       ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales of 27.4 mbu for week end April 19 were down 36% from last week and 33% v. the 4-week avg.  However, unshipped export sales of 809 mbu are up 36% v. last year & are a record for this time of year

  • T-storm Weather: A total of 45% of second-crop (safrinha) corn in Brazil was drier than normal over the last 30 days.  Most safrinha corn will be dry and seasonable to warm over the next 7-10 days with highs in the mid-80s to mid-90s  
  • ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. sorghum planting progress increases approximately 3% from April 22-29 to 26%

·       Consultant: The early planted corn in Argentina is 71% mature and 52% harvested, while the later planted corn is 41% mature and 3% harvested

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

  • ATI Research: U.S. soybean export sales of 13.6 mbu for week end April 19 were down 64% from last week and 63% v. the 4-week avg.  However, unshipped export sales of 425 mbu are up 61% v. last year & a record for this time of year
  • Consultant: Weather for soybeans in Argentina has been improving (wetter), but is coming too late for most of the crop.  Additional rains still might help some of the latest maturing beans, but not enough to increase crop estimates
  • T-storm Weather: Scattered rain affects HRW wheat in the U.S. Plains next week, especially eastern areas of KS-NE-OK

·       Export sales of 17/18 U.S. wheat week end April 19: 10.9 mbu, which is more than double the 4-week avg. of 4.7 mbu

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLM18-$0.22@$67.97; EBM, -$0.26@$74.48; EBM-QCLM, -$0.07RBM,+.0007NGM, -.042HOM, -.0035

·       On Thursday, cash ethanol markets were lower: Chicago was quoted at $1.465, down $0.01; Basis to Chicago—New York, +11; Gulf, +9 ½; Dallas, +10; Tampa, +23 ½; and LA, +28 ¾

·       On Thursday, ethanol RINs declined: 2017’s eased 1 to 28-29; and 2018’s down 1 ¼ at 34-35

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread was $.026 wider yesterday, closing at+$.64730/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    &nb​sp;                

  • Cho​ice boxed beef values were $1.55 higher on Thursday at $220.08, and are up $8.74 vs. a week ago
  • Dressed steer weight for week end April 14: 867 lbs, down 5 lbs v. last week, 874.75 for 4-week avg. & 848 last year
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 59-cents on Thursday to $67.14, and is 36-cents lower vs. last week
  • CME Lean Hog Index was $0.79 higher on Thu. at $61.23.  May futures fell $1.225 but are still $6.095 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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