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MARKET TREND Mixed CK, Up 1, SK, down 2, WK, Up 2

March 29, 2018 07:07 AM

Shonkwiler, Larry

Attachments5:26 AM (1 hour ago)
 
to MorningJim
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Mixed: CK, +$.0125; SK, -$.01; WK, +$.0225; KWK, +$.0150. Prospective PlantingsGrain Stocks 11:00 CDT
  • MACRO: Equity markets are higher in both Asia and Europe—China/N Korea meeting & positive economic # for the latter.  Asia: Higher:  Nikkei, +0.61%;Shanghai, +1.24%; Hang Seng, +0.24%.  EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.98%; FTSE,+0.45%; CAC, +0.66%.  WALL STREET:  Premarkets point to a higher opening: DOW,+80; S&P, +13.00; NAS, +51.25.  EXTERNALS: $ Index+0.086 @ 88.975; Apr Gold:-$0.50 @ $1,324; May crude: +$0.13 @ $64.51

·       T-storm Weather: Several systems continue to move across the central U.S. over the next two weeks, focusing rain on the Delta and southeast half of the Corn Belt where heavy totals of 2.50" to 5.00" accumulate, especially from rain through today then every few days resuming Monday-Tuesday.  An unseasonably cold period also dominates most areas from Friday forward, marking a cold and wet start to the spring across much of the central U.S. through at least the first 7 to 10 days of April

·       CK, up $.0125 @ $3.7475; CN, up $.01 @ $3.8325. The funds sold 2 K ahead of theThursday report        

  • SK, down $.01 @ $10.17; SN, dn $.01 @ $10.2775. Funds: Sold 2 SB, 2 SBM, bot 1 K SBO. Board crush:  $1.47, 0; LY: $.80
  • WK, up $.0225 @ $4.4725; WN, up $.0250 @ $4.6225.  The funds again sold 3 K                

CORN/SORGHUM

· ​      USDA Prospective Plantings at 11:00 am CDT: Average trade estimate of U.S. corn acreage is 89.4 mil (range 87.6-91.0) v. 90.2 in 2017.  Average trade estimate of U.S. sorghum acreage is 5.9 mil (range 5.5-6.3) v. 5.6 mil in 2017

·       USDA Grain Stocks at 11:00 CDT: Avg. trade est. U.S. corn stocks, 8.703 bbu (range 8.550-8.881) v. 8.622 bbu in 2017

  • Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 47-59 mbu for 17/18 corn
  • Consultant: In Argentina, the later corn (approximately 60% of the total crop)  is expected to be lower yielding than the early corn

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA Prospective Plantings: Average trade estimate U.S. soybeans, 91.1 mil (range 89.9-92.6) v. 90.1 mil in 2017

·       USDA Grain Stocks: Average trade estimate for U.S. soybeans, 2.030 bbu (range 1.810-2.110) v. 1.739 bbu in 2017

·       Export Sales.  Trade expects 22-33 mbu for 17/18 soybeans; 150-350 K MT 17/18 soymeal; & 15-60 K MT 17/18 soyoil

·       USDA Prospective Plantings: Avg. trade est. for U.S. all wheat acreage, 46.3 mil (range 43.9-47.2) v. 46.0 mil in 2017

·       USDA Grain Stocks: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. all wheat stocks, 1.498 bbu (range 1.450-1.640) v. 1.659 bbu in 2017

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 7-15 mbu for 17/18 all wheat

·       T-storm Weather: Over next 2 weeks, driest 50% of U.S. HRW wheat stays drier than normal; light rain for other half

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLK18+$.13 @ $64.51; EBK, -$.05 @ $69.48; EBK-QCLK-$0.18RBK-.0035;NGK, +.034HOK, -.0099

·       On Wednesday, cash ethanol markets were steady to slightly higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.43125, up $0.00375; Basis to Chicago—New York, +9 ¼; Gulf, +10 ¼; Dallas, +7 ¾; Tampa, +21 ¼; and LA, +21 ¾

·       On Wed., ethanol RINs fell: 2016’s unchanged at 29-34; 2017’s down 4 ½ at 40-43; and 2018’s down 3 ½ to 42-46

·       The April RBOB/April ethanol spread slipped modestly, off $.0019 to +$.5860/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            ​;                         ​;

  • Choice boxed beef values eased 74-cents on Wednesday to $221.62 and are down $2.76 vs. a week ago
  • Trade est. for today’s USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs: All Hogs & Pigs, 103.1%; Breeding, 101.5%, Marketing, 103.3%
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined 16-cents on Wed. to $69.34 and is $1.68 lower vs. last week  
  • CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.73 on Wed. to $59.85.  April futures firmed $0.825, but are still $2.925 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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