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MARKET TREND Mixed CK, down 1,SK, up 2,WK, down 2

March 14, 2018 07:27 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Mixed:  CK, -$.0075; SK, +$.0175; WK, -$.0275; KWK, -$.0250
  • MACRO: Overseas markets are mixed with U.S. futures indices suggesting a higher start to today’s trading.  Asia: Lower:  Nikkei, -0.87%; Shanghai, -0.57%; Hang Seng, -0.53%.  EUROPE: Firmer: DAX, +0.40%; FTSE, +0.31%; CAC, +0.39%.  WALL STREET:  Futures are definitely higher—DOW, +118; S&P, +10.25; NAS, +35.50.  EXTERNALS: $ Index+0.137 @ 89.780; Apr Gold-$1.50 @ $1,325; Apr crude: +$.33 @ $61.04.  Deliveries:  SBM, 0; SBO, 22; RR, 0; C, 0; ETOH, 0; HRW, 2; SRW, 3; SB, 0

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, thunderstorms focus on northern areas through Thu. (especially tonight & Thu).  Thunderstorms then affect areas to the south when a strong system passes Sat-Sun.  Four to six days of drying follow before some more thunderstorms follow within next Fri.-Sun.  In Brazil, heavy thunderstorms focus on northern Mato Grosso the next few days, & Thu. & Sun. in Rio Grande do Sul.  Less rain occurs between each area, leaving central areas drier than normal next 7-10 days

·       CK, down $.0075 @ $3.91; CN, down $.0075 @ $3.99.  Moderate fund buying continued Tuesday, estimated at 3 K       

  • SK, up $.0175 @ $10.5050; SN, up $.0175 @ $10.6125. Funds: bot 4K SB, 5K SBO, 5K SBM. Board crush:  $1.32, +9; LY: $.76
  • WK, down $.03 @ $4.8350; WN, down $.0275 @ $5.0175.  The funds sold 3 K yesterday            

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, 0.75”- to 1.50” of rain occurs in northern areas through Thursday, including ~30% of late corn.  Most other areas stay dry through at least Friday.  Additional rain occurs Sat.-Sun. across a wider area

  • Consultant: Brazil corn crop estimate is steady at 86.0 MMT with a neutral bias going forward

·       Ethanol margins: $0.28 per gallon—up from $0.23 last week but below $0.29 last year.  EIA report at 9:30 am CST

·       December 2018 corn futures on Tue. closed at $4.09 ¾—the highest settlement price for the contract since Aug. 14

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, the end result of rainfall over the next two weeks is below normal totals of 0.50”-1.50” west to contrast with near- & above-normal totals of 1.50”-3.00” north & east; ~2.25” is normal of the period

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. is unchanged at 114.0 MMT with a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward

  • November 2018 soybean futures Tuesday closed at $10.44; one year ago, November 2017 futures settled at $9.94 ½

·       ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports is the 13-18 mbu per week range compared to 22.3 mbu last year

·       T-storm Weather: Rain/snow chances exist but are low next two weeks for the driest 50% of HRW wheat in SW Plains

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLJ18+$.33 @ $61.04; EBK, +$.30 @ $64.94; EBK-QCLK-$0.04RBJ+.0138;NGJ, -.046; HOJ,+.0145

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +2.5 (+1.2); Gasoline, -0.8 (-1.3); Distillates, -1.1 (-4.3).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.058 mil barrels/day (range 1.045-1.068).  Avg. est. for ethanol stocks is 23.1 mil barrels (range 22.8-23.3)

·       On Tuesday, cash ethanol markets were higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.4925, up $0.015; Basis to Chicago—New York, +10 ¾; Gulf, +12; Dallas, +5; Tampa, +17 ¾; and LA, +18 ¾

·       On Tuesday, ethanol RINs declined: 2016’s down 2 at 32 ½-37 ½; 2017’s off 2 at 34-39; & 2018’s fell 2 to 35-40

·       The April RBOB/April ethanol spread retreated $.0177 yesterday, to close at+$.3643/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                             ​;        

  • Choice boxed beef values declined 17-cents on Tuesday to $223.73, but are still 38-cents higher vs. a week ago
  • Light to moderate cattle trading surfaced in most areas on Tuesday with prices generally ranging steady to $1 higher
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 2-cents on Tuesday to $74.40, and is down $2.60 vs. last week
  • CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.38 on Tuesday to $66.67.  April futures firmed $0.05, and are $1.055 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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