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MARKET TREND Mixed CH, Up 1, SF, Up 4, WH, Up 4

December 7, 2018 07:35 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Mixed:  CH, +$.0075; SF, -$.01; WH, +$.0250; KWH, +$.0350
  • MACRO:  November jobs report out today, may give guidance on future fed rate changes.  Asia: Mostly firm--Nikkei, +0.82%; Shanghai,+0.03%; Hang Seng, -0.35%.  EUROPE: Nice rebound—DAX, +0.64%; FTSE, +1.56%; CAC, +1.51%.  WALL STREET: Futures are, weaker: DOW,-92; S&P, -11.25; NAS, -31.50.  EXTERNALS: Jan crude: -$0.10 @ $51.39;Dec Gold: +$4.40 @ $1,243; Dec $ Index, +.031 @ 96.795. Dely: SBO, 716; C, 712; SRW, 109

·       T-storm Weather: In northern Brazil, occasional thunderstorms continue over the next 5-7 days.  In southern Brazil, dry weather continues over the next week, initially accompanied by coolness through Monday, then very warm to hot weather next week.  In Argentina, dry and cool weather over the next few days will be followed a brief period of very warm and hot weather early next week.  Warmth occurs in advance of a strong system that dumps 1.00" to 2.00" across a wide area over Tuesday-Friday

·       CH, up $.0075 @ $3.8350; CK, up $.01 @ $3.91.  The funds again sold 2 K      

  • SF, dn $.01 @ $9.21; SH, dn $.0050 @ $9.34.  Funds: a repeat @ 0 SB, sold 1 K SBM & SBO. Board Crush: $0.93, -1; LY: $1.12 
  • WH, up $.0250 @ $5.18; WK, up $.03 @ $5.24.  And, managed money accounts were again sellers of 5 K                

CORN/SORGHUM

·      &​nbsp;Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 31-43 mbu for 18/19 corn

  • USDA WASDE report Dec. 11: Avg. trade est. U.S. corn carryout--18/19, 1.744 bbu (range 1.585-2.058) & 1.736 in Nov.

·       Consultant: Farmers in Argentina have finished planting early corn and it is generally in good condition with adequate soil moisture.  The earliest corn is now transitioning into reproduction with approximately 7% of crop pollinating

  • T-storm Weather: In Argentina, 1.00"-2.00" of rain impacts a wide area Dec. 11-14 & increases soil moisture for corn

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,069,000 barrels/day for week end Nov. 30—up 21 thou vs. prior week but down 3.5% v. 2017

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 22-33 for 18/19 soybeans; 175-400 for 18/19 soymeal; and 8-26 for 18/19 soyoil

·       USDA WASDE Dec. 11: Avg. trade est. U.S. soybean carryout--18/19, 0.938 bbu (range 0.802-1.033) & 0.955 in Nov.

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop this year is off to an average type of start.  However, if the rains forecasted for next week do not materialize, some moisture stress could start to develop

  • T-storm Weather: In Argentina, favorable weather for soybean planting continue over the next five to six days

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-22 mbu for 18/19 all wheat

·       USDA WASDE Dec. 11: Avg. trade est. U.S. wheat carryout--18/19, 0.969 bbu (range 0.924-1.025) & 0.949 in Nov

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLF19, -$0.10 @ $51.39; EBG,+$0.45 @ $60.52; EBG-QCLG, +$0.47;RBF, +.0065; NGF, -.066HOF, +.0051

·       Chicago ethanol plunged $.0315 to $1.1850; basis values were unch/weaker: New York, up $.0040 @ $.1700; Gulf, -.0035 @ $.14; Dallas, -.0435 @ $.10; Tampa, -.00350 @ $.24; and LA, +.0065 @ $.20    

·       Ethanol RINs firmed: 2017’s, +2 ½ @ 15-17; 2018’s, +2 @ 17 ½ -18 ½; 2019’s, +3 ¼ @ 20-22                          

·  &nbs​p;    The Jan RBOB/Dec ethanol spread recovered most of Wednesday’s loss, up$.0258 @+$.20440/gal 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                ​;                      

  • Choice boxed beef was 59-cents lower on Thursday at $212.67 but is 6-cents higher vs. a week ago 
  • Dressed steer weight for week end Nov. 24: 902 lbs, up 2 lbs v. last week, 899.5 for the 4-week avg. and 904 last year
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout increased 68-cents on Thursday to $70.33 and is up $3.15 vs. last week 
  • CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.21 on Thu. to $56.19.  December futures fell $1.325 and are $1.665 below the index

Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN. T-storm Weather

 



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