HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mixed:  CH, unch; SF, +$.0125; WH, -unch; KWH, -$.0025.  USDA Supply/Demand report 11:00 am CST
• MACRO:  Equity markets taking a breather following Monday’s wild trading session but more volatility is expected; China/U.S. are chatting on the phone.  Asia: Mostly firmer--Nikkei, -0.34%; Shanghai, +0.37%;Hang Seng, +0.07%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, -1.57%; FTSE, -1.15%; CAC, -1.59%.  WALL STREET: Futures are higher: DOW, +122; S&P, +12.25;NAS, +42.00.  EXTERNALS: Jan crude: +$0.34 @ $51.34; Dec Gold: +$2.90 @ $1,247; Dec $ Index, -.273 @ 96.910. Dely: SBO, 390; C, 76; HRW, 1; SRW, 8

·       T-storm Weather: In northern Brazil, only isolated thunderstorms are expected over the next 10 days, resulting in a period of much below-normal rainfall for the first time this season.  In southern Brazil (and Paraguay), dry and hot weather continue over the next five days.  In Argentina, heavy thunderstorms affect key grain and oilseed areas today and again Thursday-Friday, producing 1.00" to 4.00" with highest totals in / near Cordoba, Santa Fe, and northern Buenos Aires

·       CH, unch @ $3.84; CK, unch @ $3.9125.  Monday found the Funds selling 5 K        

• SF, up $.0125 @ $9.11; SH, up $.0125 @ $9.24.  Funds: Sold 3 KSB, 1 SBM & bot 1 K SBO. Board Crush: $0.89, +5; LY: $1.07 
• WH, unch @ $5.2525; WK, unch @ $5.3725.   Fund sales yesterday: 3 K                 

CORN/SORGHUM

• USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade est. U.S. corn carryout--18/19, 1.744 bbu (range 1.585-2.058), 1.736 in Nov.

·       T-storm Weather: In southern Brazil. isolated thunderstorms form from Saturday forward across full-season corn, but organized rain is not expected until Dec. 17-18 forward when a cool front shifts northward and then dissipates

·       Consultant: Weather for full-season corn in southern Brazil has turned drier, but the corn is well established with deeper roots than recently planted soybeans; as a result, the corn should withstand the dry period better than beans

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 18/19 U.S. corn is 1.929 bbu vs. November USDA est. of 1.736 bbu

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade est. U.S. soybean carryout--18/19, 0.938 bbu (range 0.802-1.033), 0.955 Nov

·       Consultant: There is concern for soybeans in central & southern Brazil due to developing dryness; rains are needed

• T-storm Weather: A stormier period for soybean across southern Brazil resumes after 10 days as a series of cool fronts sweep into the region and dissipate, producing seasonably-heavy totals of 1.00” to 2.00” over Dec. 20-25

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks est. for 18/19 U.S. soybeans is 1.032 bbu vs. November USDA est. of 0.955 bbu

• USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade est. U.S. wheat carryout--18/19, 0.969 bbu (range 0.924-1.025), 0.949 in Nov
• ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat balance sheet; 18/19 carryout projected at 416 mbu compared to 581 mbu last year 

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLF19, +$0.34 @ $51.34; EBG, +$0.29 @ $60.26; EBG-QCLG, -$0.04; RBF, +.0127; NGF, -.070; HOF, +.0122

·       Chicago ethanol shed $.0175 Monday to $1.1725; basis values were mostly firmer: New York, +$.0075 @ $.1775; Gulf, -.0025 @ $.14250; Dallas, -$.0175 @ $.1175; Tampa, +$.0025 @ $.2425; and LA, +$.0175 @ $.2175    

·       Ethanol RINs were mixed: 2017’s, -1/2 @ 56 ½-17; 2018’s, unch @ 17 ½ -18; 2019’s, +1/4 @ 20-21 ½                           

·       The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread lost $.0499 on Monday as it narrowed to +$.1979/gal 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                &nb​sp;     

• Choice boxed beef was $1.13 higher on Monday at $215.42 and is up $2.34 vs. a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $1.01 v. last week at $118.11/cwt, and is $0.65 higher v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout fell 69-cents on Monday to $71.18 but is still up $2.58 vs. last week  
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $36.38/cwt vs. last week’s $37.13, last month’s $33.34 & last year’s $40.53

Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN. T-storm Weather