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MARKET TREND Mixed CH, Down 3, SF, Down 4, WH, Unchanged

December 24, 2018 07:16 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND (6:00 am)—Mixed: CH, -$.0250; SF, -$.0425; WH, +$.01; KWH, +$.0050  
  • MACRO:  U.S. banks assure Mnuchin that they have ample liquidity after Friday’s sell-off.  Asia: Lower--Nikkei, Closed%; Shanghai, -0.43%;Hang Seng, -0.40%.  EUROPE: Mostly lower—DAX, +0.21%; FTSE,-0.43%; CAC, -1.09%.  WALL STREET: Futures are positive:  DOW, +81;S&P, +12.50; NAS, +46.00.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: -$0.24 @ $45.36;Dec 19 Gold: +$5.40 @ $1,294; Mar $ Index, -.185 @ 96.270

·       T-storm Weather: Dry and hot weather break from south to north across Brazil as cool air spreads northward, initially focusing on southern areas over the next one to two days, then further to the north starting in earnest Wed.-Thu.  In Argentina, scattered thunderstorms return from Thu.-Fri. forward as the next set of weather systems approach and pass, aiding late-crop corn and soybean planting into at least late week.  Temperatures fluctuate through then, generally averaging below normal

·       CH, dn $.0250 @ $3.76; CK, dn $.03 @ $3.8325  Funds were buyers of 4 K on Friday             

  • SF, dn $.0425 @ $8.8050; SH, dn $.0450 @ $8.9325.  Funds: sold 6 SB, 3 SBM & 5 SBO. Board Crush: $0.94, 0; LY: $0.98 
  • WH, up $.01 @ $5.15; WK, up $.0075 @ $5.22.  Funds:  sold 6 K to close out the week                      

CORN/SORGHUM

·   ​;    Consultant: In Brazil, early harvest of soybeans will result in early planting of safrinha (double crop) corn in 2019

·       T-storm Weather: An unseasonably cool period combined with scattered thunderstorms impacts full-season corn across southern Brazil this week

·       ATI Research: Last week’s USDA Cattle on Feed report indicated that the supply of cattle on feed more than 150 days is 20% higher than last year.  The next update of U.S. corn feed/residual usage will be made on Jan. 11

·       March 2019 corn futures on Friday closed at $3.78 ½; one year ago, March 2018 corn futures settled at $3.52

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Weather permitting, up to 20% of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil could be harvested by Jan. 31, 2019

·       T-storm Weather: An unseasonably cool period combined with scattered thunderstorms impacts soybeans across southern Brazil this week

·       January 2019 soybean futures on Friday closed at $8.84 ¾; last year, January 2018 soybean futures settled at $9 49 ½

·       CBT March 2019 wheat futures on Friday closed at $5.14; last year, CBT March 2018 wheat futures settled at $4 24 ¾

  • T-storm Weather: Dry and cool weather is forecast across southern Argentina over the next seven days, which should support wheat harvest progress

ENERGY

·       Mixed:  CLG19, -$0.24 @ $45.36; EBG, +$0.15 @ $53.97; EBG-QCLG, +$0.40; RBG, -.0099; NGG, -.089HOG, +.0082

·       Chicago ethanol gained $.00875 to $1.21750; basis values were mixed: New York, +$.01125 @ $.17250; Gulf, +$.00125 @ $.09250; Dallas, -$.00375 @ $.10250; Tampa, -$.01375 @ $.23750; and LA, +$.01125 @ $.23250    

·       Ethanol RINs were mixed: 2017’s, unch @ 17-19; 2018’s, -0.50 @ 21 ½ -22; 2019’s, +2.50 @ 24-26                             

·       The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread lost $.0133 Friday, to +$.0803/gal

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                              &​nbsp;       

  • Choice boxed beef was $1.58 higher on Friday at $214.05 and is up $3.09 vs. a week ago
  • Moderate cash cattle trading surfaced on Fri. with most live deals marked at $119, mostly steady with the prior week
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained 37-cents on Friday to $69.67 but is still down 84-cents vs. last week
  • CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.78 on Friday to $53.87.  February futures fell $1.25 but are still $7.255 above the index

Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN. T-storm Weather

 



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