HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—Mixed: CH, down $.0075; SF, up $.03; WH, down $.0050; KWH, down $.0025
· MACRO. Most overseas markets are a little firmer with trade this week expected to be on the light side; no major data releases. ASIA—Mostly higher: Nikkei, +0.08%; Shanghai, -0.93%; Hang Seng, +0.07%. EUROPE: Firmer: DAX,+0.08%; FTSE, +0.19%; CAC, +0.08%. WALL STREET—Futures are a little firmer—DOW, 9; S&P, +2.25; NAS, +8.25. EXTERNALS: $ Index: -.051 @ 92.650; Gold: -$0.10 @ $1,285; Feb crude: -$0.39 @ $58.58.
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T-storm Weather: Rains the last week improved soil moisture in much of Arg but some areas could use more and a wet pattern is not forthcoming. Brazil saw widespread amounts during the same period and scattered rain events will return to South America this weekend forward. In Europe, an unsettled period will improve soil moisture in western parts of the Continent with Eastern Europe and Russia taking a break from significant rain/snow events
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CH, down $.0075 @ $3.52; CK, down $.0050 @ $3.6050. The funds began the week in a day of even trading
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SF, up $.03 @ $9.6225; SH, up $.03 @ $9.7350. Funds: Bot 4 SB, 3 SBM, 4 SBO. Board Crush: $0.99, +5; LY, $.73
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WH, down $.0050 @ $4.2175; WK, down $.0075 @ $4.3475. The funds opened the week by again selling 2 K
CORN/SORGHUM
·  T-storm Weather: Most areas of Argentina have received 1 ½ to 3 1.2” amounts the past 2 weeks, except in the north and south. Isolated storms will develop the next several days; heat is limited as are rain amounts
· FGIS has YTD milo inspections lagging 8 million behind LY (although the China total at 62 mbu is 8 ahead); 60 vs 68
· PNW corn demand? Liftings the past 2 weeks of 12.2 mbu are 97% of the prior 14-week total. Still, YTD loadings to all destinations are off 40% at 387 million. And, unshipped sales of 624 million are down 19% year to year
· March Corn’s $3.52 ¾ cent close today is 2 ¼ cents below the corresponding year-ago settlement price
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· T-storm Weather: While areas of dryness do exist in Brazil, their extent is limited with most areas expected to receive heavy rain amounts this week or next
· Soybean exports fell further behind 16/17: inspections of 47.1 million TW were down about 17 million from LY. YTD inspections are 12 ½%/155 million behind. China’s total this year is off 20% or close to 180 mbu. NOTE the ATI export forecast is 95 mbu BELOW USDAbut the implied 100 mbu MORE to China for the balance of the year looks high
· Saving grace for QII bean export program may be the declining Brail line-up—32 mbu versus 27 a year ago
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Tuesday’s $9.59 ¼ SF close was 55 ½ cents below the year-ago Board action
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The U.S. will continue COLD the next 10 days; winterkill was likely limited to some HRW areas in SD and snow-pack will develop before the next blast of Arctic air this weekend or early next week
ENERGY
· Lower: CLG18, -$.39 @ $58.58; EBG, -$0.76 @ $66.26; EBG-QCLG, -$0.37; RBG,-.0245; NGG, +.026; HOG, -.0140
· Chicago eased $.0123 on Tuesday to $1.2750/gallon. Basis to Chicago—New York, +10 ¼; Gulf, +6 ½; Dallas, +5 ½; Tampa, +22 ½; and LA, +24 ½; most were up 1-2 cents
· Ethanol RINs opened the week ¼ cent lower: 2016’s were 64 to 64 ¾; 2017’s at 64 ¾ -65 ½ and 2018’s, 64 3/4 -65 ½
· The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread gained $.0343 yesterday to +$.49060/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY
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Choice boxed beef values gained $3.04 on Tuesday, but are still 55-cents lower compared to last week.
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5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up 26-cents v. last week at $119.97/cwt, and is $4.83 higher v. last year
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USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.19 on Tuesday to $75.66, but is 71-cents higher vs. a week ago
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CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.14 on Tue. to $61.62. February futures firmed $1.55 and are $9.905 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather