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MARKET TREND Lower CZ down unchanged, SX down 2, WZ down 2

October 9, 2017 08:04 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Lower: CZ: down $.0025; SX: down $.02; WZ: down $.0350; KWZ: down $.0275  

·       MACRO:  China’s back from holiday; Catalonia may not secede from Spain; 2.9% yr to yr gain US wages=93% chance rate hike by Dec. ASIA—Mostly firmer:  Nikkei,+0.30%; Shanghai, +0.77%; Hang Seng, -0.46%.  EUROPE: Mostly weaker: DAX, +0.03%; FTSE, -0.19%; CAC, -0.00%.  WALL STREET—Futures are firmer—DOW, +35; S&P, +4.00;NAS, +11.75.  EXTERNALS:  $ Index-.131 @ 93.510; Gold:+$8.30 @ $1,280; Dec crude:-$0.01 @ $49.63/bl.  Del’y: SBM, 66; SBO, 57

  • T-storm Weather: Showers occur in western HRW wheat areas of central Plains today, followed by better-organized rain of 0.50” to 1.00” in much of Corn Belt Tue. (esp. in northern MO, southeast half of IA & northwest half of IL).  Another system produces 0.50”-1.00” of rain within northwest half of Corn Belt Sat.-Sun.  A killing freeze occurs Tue. morning across the northwest two-thirds of Plains incl. all growing areas of northern Plains & CO, as well as western third to half of NE, & northwest corner of KS
  • CZ, down $.0025 @ $3.4975; CH, down $.0050 @ $3.6275.  The funds were again buyers of 2 K on Friday     
  • SX, down $.02 @ $9.7025; SF, down $.0250 @ $9.8050.  Funds:  Bought 3 SB; 3 SBM & sold 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $.92, 0; LY: $.70
  • WZ, down $.0350 @ $4.40; WH, down $.0325 @ $4.5950.  The funds reversed course and bought 2 K on Friday    

CORN/SORGHUM

  • T-storm Weather: Beyond next weekend, a drier period follows in all U.S. corn producing areas as areas of high pressure pass, improving conditions for harvesting within the northwest half of the Corn Belt that will be the wettest

·       Consultant: Speed of soybean planting in Brazil is key forsafrinha (double crop) corn as that crop depends on being planted as early as possible after beans are harvested.  Current bean planting pace is somewhat slow but improving

·       Through Oct. 6, the 2017 crop insurance harvest price for December 2017 corn futures has averaged $3.4975

  • Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions decrease 6,168 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

  • T-storm Weather: Beyond next weekend, a drier period follows in all U.S. soybean producing areas as areas of high pressure pass, improving conditions for harvesting within the northwest half of the Corn Belt that will be the wettest

·       Consultant: 17/18 soybean crop in Argentina (planting starts this month) est. at 55.0 MMT, dn 3.0 MMT vs. last year

·       Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions increase 3,400 contracts

·       Through Oct. 6, the 2017 crop insurance harvest price for November 2017 soybean futures has averaged $9.6225

·       T-storm Weather: Rain for eastern Australia wheat (Queensland/northern New South Wales); Western Australia dry

·       Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long CBT wheat futures only positions decrease 2,246 contracts

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLZ17-0.01 @ $49.63; EBZ-$0.31 @ $55.31;EBZ-QCLZ-$.29; RBZ-.0171; NGZ, +.006; HOZ, -.0191

·       Cash ethanol markets were significantly weaker on Friday: Chicago down 2 ½; New York off 2 7/8; Gulf eased 2 ¼;  Tampa fell 2; Dallas declined ½; and LA was 4 ½ lower at $1.60 per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs weakened on Friday: 2016’s and 2017’s declined 3 1/8 lower at 76 ¼-78

·       The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol spread lost nearly 3 ½ cents to close out the week, settling at +$.13880/gallon  

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY           ​                        &​nbsp; 

  • Choice boxed beef values eased 3-cents on Friday to $197.22, but are still 60-cents higher vs. a week ago
  • Light-to-moderate cash cattle trade developed on Friday in the South with prices pegged at $109—up $1 vs. last week

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined 30-cents on Fri. to $71.92, and is down 81-cents vs. last week

  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.44 on Fri. to $55.77.  October futures fell $1.75 but are still $3.405 above the index  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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