HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—Lower: CU, -$.0375; SU, -$.09; WU, -$.0750; KWU, -$.0975
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MACRO: A plummeting currency/diplomatic tiff with the White House have world markets on edge over Turkey’s future-- most global indices weaker this morning. Asia—Lower: Nikkei, -1.98%; Shanghai, -0.32%; Hang Seng, -1.52%. EUROPE: Lower: DAX, -0.62%; FTSE, -0.51%; CAC, -0.38%. WALL STREET: Futures are lower:DOW, -102; S&P, -9.75; NAS, -30.25. EXTERNALS: Sep crude: -$0.14 @ $67.49; Aug Gold: -$7.20 @ $1,204; Dec $ Index, +.082 @ 95.885. DEL’Y: SBM, 50; SBO, 33; SB, 191
· T-storm Weather: Temps average near normal for most U.S. corn & soybeans over the next two weeks; highs mostly in the 80s and lows in the 60s going forward. Most corn, soybeans, & spring wheat will be dry through today. Thereafter, a cool front and upper -level system converge on the Corn Belt & produce 0.75”-1.50” across the Delta, southeast half of the Corn Belt, & from Kansas south over Tue.-Thu., but generally leave the northwest ~40% of U.S. corn & soybean production (& all spring wheat) dry
· CU, dn $.0375 @ $3.54; CZ, dn $.0375 @ $3.68. USDA yield surprises trade . .. fund sales total 20 K on Friday
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SU, dn $.09 @ $8.4175; SX, dn $.0875 @ $8.53. Funds: Sold 20 SB, 10 SBM, 8 SBO. Board Crush: $1.66, +$.13, LY: $.91
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WU, dn $.0725 @ $5.3950; WZ, dn $.0750 @ $5.62. The funds were estimated to have sold 8 K Friday
CORN/SORGHUM
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Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report to peg U.S. corn Good/Excellent 69-71% v. 71% last week and 62% last year
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ATI Research: USDA WASDE report raised the U.S. corn yield estimate 4.4 bpa from July to a record 178.4, which was 2.2 bpa above the avg. trade estimate. If the adage “big crops get bigger” holds, then certainly a little negative
· T-storm Weather: Although heat continues today for corn in the U.S. northern Plains, seasonable to slightly-cool weather follow as cool fronts frequently pass
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 80.6 mbu needed; 50.7 last week. Milo—4.3 needed; 1.9 last week
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report to peg U.S. soybean Good/Excellent 65-67% v. 67% last week & 59% last year
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ATI Research: WASDE report raised U.S. soybean yield 3.1 bpa to 51.6, helping to boost 18/19 carry-out to 785 mbu
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T-storm Weather: After rain on Tue.-Thu., another round of precip likely follows for soybeans within Fri.-Sun., producing 0.50”-1.00” across most of the central U.S., except in northern Plains where only 0.25”-0.50” is probable
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 37.3 mbu needed; 32.8 last week
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 21.0 mbu needed; 12.0 last week
· T-storm Weather: In Australia, little to no rain is foreseen next 7-10 days for wheat in Queensland & New South Wales
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLU18, -$0.14 @ $67.49; EBV, +$0.12 @ $72.93; EBV-QCLV, +$0.24; RBU,-.0063; NGU, -.026; <strong>HOU, +.0003
· On Friday, cash ethanol markets were steady to lower: Chicago was quoted at $1.3525, down $0.0215; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.1175; Gulf, +$0.1025; Dallas, +$0.0675; Tampa, +$0.2025; and LA, +$0.2725
· Ethanol RINs were unchanged on Friday: 2017’s were 15 ½-16 ½, while 2018’s were 19-20
· The September RBOB/September ethanol spread widened $.0630 on Friday, closing at $.69020/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef values firmed 55-cents on Friday to $206.61 and are $1.86 higher vs. last week
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Moderate cash cattle trading developed in the South on Fri.; most sales at $111, generally $3 lower than last week
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USDA mandatory pork carcass fell 50-cents on Friday to $70.22 and is 65-cents lower compared to a week ago
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CME Lean Hog Index fell $1.84 on Fri. to $60.04. August futures eased $0.175, and are $5.24 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather