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MARKET TREND Lower CN, Up 1, SN, Down 1, WN, Up 6

June 21, 2018 07:56 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Lower: CN, -$.01; SN, -$.08; WN, -$.0225; KWN, -$.0425
  • MACRO:  “Equities/investors need to see constructive trade negotiations between the U.S. and various other countries in order to ensure confidence in the markets”.  Asia—Mostly lower: Nikkei, +0.61%; Shanghai, -1.38%; Hang Seng, -1.35%. EUROPE: Mostly weaker: DAX, -1.01%; FTSE, +0.01%; CAC, -0.50%.  WALL STREET: Futures are lower: DOW, -93; S&P, -7.50; NAS, -16.25.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude:-$0.90 @ $64.80; Aug Gold: -$9.60 @ $1,265; Dec $ Index+.479 @ 94.755

·       T-storm Weather: Numerous systems produce 1.50" to 3.00" of rain across the southern two-thirds of the central U.S. over the next week, while lighter amounts affect areas to the north.  An important event follows next Tue.-Thu. (June 26-28) as the final system exits, allowing heat to expand from west to east later next week.  At this point, we are forecasting above-normal temperatures across a wide area over June 28 - July 4 with some thunderstorms – especially north and east

·       CN, dn $.01 @ $3.5325; CU, dn $.0125 @ $3.6250.  The funds were even in mid-week trading                 

  • SN, dn $.08 @ $8.8150; SQ, dn $.0750 @ $8.87.  Funds: sold 3 SB, 6 SBM; Bot 5 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.67 , +$.03; LY: $.87
  • WN, dn $.0225 @ $4.86; WU, dn $.0250 @ $4.9675  The funds were buyers yesterday of an estimated 5 K                                      &n​bsp;    

CORN/SORGHUM

·       ​Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 28-39 mbu for 17/18 corn

  • T-storm Weather: Corn in central Plains & Corn Belt experiences pockets of rain over the next week until final system exists June 26-28.  Delta receives its rain through Sunday, while scattered showers affect northern areas June 22-27
  • Ethanol grind: Total of 1,064,000 barrels/day for week end June 15—up 11 thou v. prior week & up 7.5% v. last year
  • Consultant: Argentina corn production estimate is unchanged this week at 32.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias.  Harvest is 45% complete, which is up 5% from the previous week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-22 mbu for 17/18 soybeans; soymeal, 50-250 K MT; soyoil, 0-20 K MT 

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean production est. is unchanged at 36.0 MMT; neutral to lower bias.  Harvest at 95.6% 

·       T-storm Weather: Only 22% of U.S. soybean production was drier than normal over the 30-day period ending Tuesday (June 19)

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 9-18 mbu for 18/19 all wheat

  • T-storm Weather: Approx. 37% of European Union wheat has been drier than normal over the last 30 days.  Much drier and warmer than normal conditions are forecast for wheat in Germany (#2 producer in EU) over next 7-10 days  

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLQ18-$.90 @ $64.809; EBQ, -$1.10 @ $73.63; EBQ-QCLQ, -$0.20RBQ, -.0115NGQ, +.019HOQ, -.0238

·       On Wednesday, cash ethanol markets were mostly higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.39, up $0.005; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.125; Gulf, +$0.085; Dallas, +$0.10; Tampa, +$0.235; and LA, +$0.245 

·       Ethanol RINs were higher on Wednesday: 2017’s increased 3 to 16 ½-21; and 2018’s firmed 3 to 23 ½-28 ½

·       The July RBOB/July ethanol spread shed $.0244 cent yesterday, tugging back to+$.6205/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                 &n​bsp;   

  • Choice boxed beef values were $1.41 lower on Wednesday at $218.29 and are down $5.61 compared to a week ago
  • Estimates for Friday USDA Cattle on Feed: June 1 on feed, 103.4%; May placements, 96.0%; Marketed in May 105.2%
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 18-cents on Wed. to $83.98 and is up $3.16 vs. last week 
  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $1.09 on Wed. to $85.14.  July futures fell $1.85 and are $5.115 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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