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MARKET TREND Lower CN, Down 4, SN, Down 4, WN, Down 8

June 14, 2018 07:09 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Lower: CN, -$.0325; SN, -$.0225; WN, -$.06; KWN, -$.0650
  • MACRO:  Fed ratchets up rate a ¼% to 2%; says it will increase short term values 2 more times this year; is more optimistic on economic growth—“sustained expansion”-- and inflation expectations.  Asia—Lower: Nikkei, -0.99%; Shanghai, -0.17%; Hang Seng, -0.93%.  EUROPE: Lower: DAX, -0.31%; FTSE, -0.56%; CAC, -0.25%.  WALL STREET: Futures are slightly negative: DOW, -5; S&P, -0.25; NAS,-10.75.  EXTERNALS: July crude: +$0.18 @ $66.27; Aug Gold: +$7.80 @ $1,309; Dec $ Index-.344 @ 92.53

·       T-storm Weather: A few thunderstorms affect the central U.S. through Friday as a very warm to hot period begins; best thunderstorm chances within the western half of the central U.S., including North Dakota today.  Better-organized rainfall of 0.50" to 1.50" follows Sat.-Sun. in the northwest third of the central U.S. as a couple waves of energy ride the edge of heat, followed by similar amounts across the rest of the central U.S. over Mon.-Wed. as a cool front passes

·       CN, dn $.0325 @ $3.7275; CU, dn $.0325 @ $3.8225.  Fund selling at mid-week: 5 K                

  • SN, dn $.0225 @ $9.3375; SQ, dn $.0225 @ $9.3950.  Funds: sold 10 SB, 8 SBM; 0 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.60 , +$.06; LY: $.85
  • WN, dn $.06 @ $5.1050; WU, dn $.0575 @ $5.27.  Overdone to the upside Tuesday, funds sell 10 K              

          CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 24-35 mbu for 17/18 corn

  • T-storm Weather: An expansive upper-level high is forecast to develop starting June 22-23, generating a warmer & drier period for U.S. corn.  Confidence is only moderate because thunderstorms have a history of forming in this setup
  • Ethanol grind: Total of 1,053,000 barrels/day for week end June 8—up 12 thou v. prior week & up 5.1% v. last year

·       Consultant: Argentina corn production estimate is unchanged this week at 32.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias goring forward.  Harvest advanced 3% last week to 40% complete

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 4-15 mbu for 17/18 soybeans; soymeal, 50-250 K MT; soyoil, 5-20 K MT 

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean production estimate is unchanged at 36.0 MMT.  Harvest is at 92.5% complete 

·       T-storm Weather: Mainly dry weather accompanies heat over next 3-5 days across U.S. soybean areas.  Thereafter, the gradual transition to seasonably-cooler weather triggers rain within northwest third of central U.S. Sat.-Sun.

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 6-17 mbu for 18/19 all wheat

  • T-storm Weather: Much drier-than-normal conditions are forecast over the next 7-10 days for the southern ~50% of Russia’s winter wheat belt.  Seasonable to mild temperatures are projected for the same region

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLN18+$.18 @ $66.82; EBQ, -$.11 @ $76.63; EBQ-QCLQ, -$0.21RBN,-.0174NGN, -.025HON, -.0157

·       On Wednesday, cash ethanol markets were higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.42125, up $0.00125; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.12375; Gulf, +$0.08875; Dallas, +$0.12375; Tampa, +$0.23875; and LA, +$0.27875 

·       Ethanol RINs were firmer on Wednesday: 2017’s up 1 to 16-19; and 2018’s increased 1 ¾ to 23-26

·       The July RBOB/July ethanol spread gained $.0423 on Wednesday to close at+$.6882/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                &nb​sp;    

  • Choice boxed beef values fell $1.02 on Wednesday to $223.90 and are down $3.07 compared to a week ago 
  • Since May 14, choice boxed beef has declined $8.22 (3.5%) and is at the lowest level sinceApril 27
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 43-cents on Wed. to $80.82 and is up $3.77 vs. last week
  • CME Lean Hog Index gained $1.53 on Wed. to $78.71.  June futures were $0.475 higher & are $2.29 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

               

 



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