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MARKET TREND Lower CN, Down 2, SN, Down 15, WN, Down 14

May 4, 2018 09:26 AM

Shonkwiler, Larry

Attachments5:35 AM (3 hours ago)
 
to MorningJim
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Lower: CN, -$.0150; SN, -$.1525; WN, -$.0575; KWK, -$.0775
  • MACRO:  Trade talks: “candid, efficient and constructive”.  PRC/U.S. officials reach some consensus; some differences remain—Xinhua News.  Asia—Subdued: Nikkei, NA; Shanghai, -0.32%; Hang Seng, -1.28%.  EUROPE: Mostly firmer: DAX, +0.47%;FTSE, +0.54%; CAC, -0.1%.  WALL STREET: Futures slightly weaker: DOW, -21; S&P, -2.25; NAS, -8.75.  EXTERNALS: June crude: -$0.02 @ $68.41; Aug Gold: -$2.20 @ $1,317.  Dely: SBM, 52; SBO, 5; RR, 9; C, 223; ETOH, 153; HRW, 24; O, 0; SB, 60

·       T-storm Weather: After rain exits the Corn Belt today, four to five days of dry weather follows / continue.  Some thunderstorms unfold within the northern Plains and Corn Belt within Tue.-Fri., especially Wed.-Thu. in the central and western Corn Belt where 0.50" to 1.00" is most likely.  Temperatures average close to normal in the Corn Belt through the middle of next week, while areas to the west and south stay warmer

·       CN, down $.0150 @ $4.0650; CU, down $.0150 @ $4.14.  The funds were back at it, buying 10 K on Thursdy                 

  • SN, dn $.1525 @ $10.38; SQ, dn $.1575 @ $10.4050. Funds: Bot 5 SB, 2 SBO, sold 2 SBM. Board crush:  $1.63, -12; LY: $.84
  • WN, dn $.0575 @ $5.3225; WU, dn $.0650 @ $5.4625.  The funds were credited with purchases of 8 K yesterday                

CORN/SORGHUM

  • December 2018 corn futures on Thu. closed at $4.22 ¼, highest settlement price for the contract since July 20, 2017
  • ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales of 40.1 mbu for week end April 26 were up 46% from last week and 16% v. the 4-week avg.  Unshipped export sales of 791 mbu are up 37% v. last year and are a record for this time of year
  • T-storm Weather: In Brazil, dry & hot weather continue for next 2 weeks or longer for northern two-thirds of second-crop (safrinha) corn because dry season / persistent upper-level high pressure has established weeks ahead of normal
  • ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn emergence increases approximately 8% from April 29-May 6 to 14%

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

  • ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. soybean export sales of 415 mbu are up 65% v. last year & a record for this time of year
  • Consultant: In Argentina, some farmers are opting not to harvest double crop soybeans due to very low yields
  • T-storm Weather: In Argentina, a large, slow-moving powerhouse system produces 500%-1000% of normal rain over the next 7-10 days.  Field flooding is most likely in central growing areas for any un-harvested soybeans
  • Chicago July 2018 wheat futures on Thu. closed at $5.38, highest settlement price for the contract since July 31, 2017
  • T-storm Weather: Most U.S. spring wheat areas in the Northern Plains will be fairly dry into Tuesday (May 8

·       Export sales of 17/18 U.S. wheat week end April 26: 8.6 mbu, which is more than double the 4-week avg. of 4.2 mbu

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLM18-$0.02@$68.41; EBN, +$0.03@$73.65; EBN-QCLN, +$0.04;RBM+.0043NGM, +.001HOM, +.0089

·       On Thursday, cash ethanol markets were firmer: Chicago was quoted at $1.45775, up $0.02775; Basis to Chicago—New York, +12 ½; Gulf, +8 ½; Dallas, +6; Tampa, +19; and LA, +25 ½

·       On Thursday, ethanol RINs were higher: 2017’s up 2 1/8 at 28-30; and 2018’s increased 1 ½ to 32-34

·       The June RBOB/May ethanol spread gave up $.0446 yesterday and closed at+$.61370/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY              &n​bsp;                      

  • Choice boxed beef values firmed 26-cents on Thursday to $227.56, and are $7.48 higher compared to last week
  • Moderate cash cattle trading developed Thu. in the South, with prices pegged at $126—about $3 higher v. last week
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.75 on Thu. to $68.02, but is still 88-cents higher vs. a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index was $0.27 higher on Thu. to $62.93.  May futures firmed $0.175 and are $4.145 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

           



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