HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Lower:  CK, -$.0050; SK, -$.0050; WK, -$.0450; KWK, -$.0625 

·       MACRO: Overseas markets rebound following U.S equity gains; trade war concerns lessen. Asia: Higher:  Nikkei, +1.79%; Shanghai, +1.02%; Hang Seng, +2.09%.  EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +1.14%; FTSE, +0.88%; CAC, +0.71%.  WALL STREET:  Futures point to a positive opening—DOW, +114;  S&P, +9.00; NAS, +37.50.  EXTERNALS: $ Index: -0.156 @ 89.885; Mar Gold: +$3.30 @ $1,321; Apr crude: +$.36 @ $62.93.  Deliveries:  SBM, 135; SBO, 125; RR, 55; C, 213; ETOH, 47; HRW, 10; Oats, 0; SB, 0

·       T-storm Weather: Dry and seasonable weather continue through at least Fri. in Argentina.  Some thunderstorms follow Sat.-Sun. when a strong but humidity-starved system passes, producing 0.33"-0.67" (especially southwest half of growing belt).  Another moderately-strong system passes a few days later, likely producing another 0.33"-0.67" central & south, & higher totals north.  Several days of drying follow.  End result is 0.67"-1.33" affects key areas over next 10-14 days, which is much below normal

·       CK, down $.0050 @ $3.8875; CN, down $.0050 @ $3.94.  The funds opened the week buying 5 K        

• SK, dn $.00150 @ $10.77; SN, dn $.0075 @ $10.85. Funds: bot 5K SB, 2K SBM, 0K SBO. Board crush:  $1.42, -7; LY: $.74
• WK, down $.05 @ $5.0425; WN, down $.0550 @ $5.1775.  Funds were buyers of 6 Kon Monday        

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, we are slightly more confident in some rain going forward because stronger systems pass over the next two weeks, which is a function of the transition away from summer and into autumn

·       Consultant: Argentina corn crop est. is lowered 1.0 MMT to 35.0 MMT with a lower bias going forward.  Yields of later planted corn are being determined now; if generous rain is not received soon, another reduction in crop size is likely

• ATI Research: U.S. corn ending stocks for the 17/18 crop year are pegged at 2.195 bbu vs. USDA at 2.352 bbu

·       March 8 USDA WASDE report: Average trade guess for U.S. corn 17/18 carryout is 2.313 bbu vs. 2.352 in February

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, likelihood is for Feb. 1 – March 15 to rank as #1 driest for soybeans since at least 1980

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean production estimate is lowered 2.0 MMT to 45.0 with a lower bias going forward

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 17/18 crop year are pegged at 576 mbu vs. USDA at 530 mbu

·       March 8 USDA WASDE report: Average trade guess for U.S. soybean 17/18 carryout is 0.529 bbu vs. 0.530 in February

·       ATI Research: U.S. HRS wheat ending stocks for the 17/18 crop year are pegged at 0.186 bbu vs. USDA at 0.176 bbu

• T-storm Weather: Some rain is possible but a drought-busting event for driest HRW wheat isn’t on immediate horizon
• March 8 USDA WASDE report: Average trade guess for U.S. wheat 17/18 carryout is 1.007 bbu vs. 1.009 in February

ENERGY

·       Mostly higher: CLJ18, +$.32 @ $62.93; EBK, +$.24 @ $65.78; EBK-QCLK, -$0.09; RBJ,-.0010; NGJ, +.006; HOJ, +.0010

·       On Monday, cash ethanol markets were mixed: Chicago was quoted at $1.45875, down $0.00025; Basis to Chicago—New York, +9 ¾; Gulf, +10 ¼; Dallas, +3 ½; Tampa, +15; and LA, +20

·       On Monday, ethanol RINs fell again: 2016’s off 3 ½ at 44-47; 2017’s eased 3 ½ to 46-49; & 2018’s down 3 ½ to 47-50

·       The April RBOB/April ethanol spread widened $.0095 to +$.4529/gallon Friday

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 ​;                    

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• Choice boxed beef values firmed 71-cents on Monday to $223.23, and are $3.71 higher vs. a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was down $1.19 v. last week at $126.76/cwt, but is up $2.00 v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $1.46 on Monday to $78.64, but is down 53-cents vs. last week

• Current nearby board hog crush value is $45.83/cwt vs. last week’s $50.43, last month’s $51.93 & last year’s $44.53

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather