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MARKET TREND Lower CK, Down 2, SK, Down 8,WK, Down 7

April 20, 2018 07:05 AM

Shonkwiler, Larry

Attachments5:41 AM (1 hour ago)
 
to MorningJim
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Lower: CK, -$.02; SK, -$.0675; WK, -$.0850; KWK, -$.10
  • MACRO: Equities are expected to start lower today with weakness seen in chip makers and consumer goods, as some earnings disappoint. Asia: Weaker: Nikkei, -0.13%; Shanghai, -1.47%; Hang Seng, -0.94%.  EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.09%; FTSE, +0.52%; CAC, +0.45%.  WALL STREET: Futures are a lower: DOW, -35 S&P, -1.25; NAS, -14.00.  EXTERNALS: Apr Gold:-$5.00 @ $1,342; May crude: +$0.26 @ $68.55

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., widespread rain affects the central / southern Plains and Delta within Friday-Sunday, producing 0.50" to 1.00" on drought-stricken HRW wheat, and 1.00" to 2.00" in the Delta.  A pocket of two of light rain affect the central U.S. next week, but heavy rain is not expected.  Most areas remain cooler than normal over the next week, then turn much warmer (but seasonable) from late next week or weekend forward

·       CK, down $.02 @ $3.80; CN, down $.02 @ $3.89. The funds were said to be even in Thursday trade              

  • ​ SK, dn $.0675 @ $10.3050; SN, down $.07 @ $10.42. Funds: sold 4 SB, 4 SBM, bot 1 SBO. Board crush:  $1.30, -3; LY: $.82
  • WK, down $.0850 @ $4.5825; WN, down $.0875 @ $4.82.  Fund buying: estimated at 3 K yesterday               

CORN/SORGHUM

·       ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales of 43.0 mbu for week end April 12 were up 30% from last week but down 4% vs. the 4-week avg.  Unshipped export sales of 848 mbu are up 40% vs. last year and are a record for this time of year

  • T-storm Weather: In the U.S., a stormier period likely unfolds in 10 to 14 days.  At least some rain is expected in early May with 0.50"-1.00" most likely for now, including the probability for higher amounts in the Corn Belt and / or Delta   

·       Consultant: In Argentina, the recent rains could still help some of the latest developing corn, which is why the aggregate production estimate was left unchanged this week at 32.0 MMT

·       ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. sorghum planting progress increases approximately 3% from April 15-22 to 23%

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean export sales of 38.2 mbu for week end April 12 were down 31% from last week but up 12% v. the 4-week avg.  Unshipped export sales of 427 mbu are up 63% v. last year & are a record for this time of year

  • Consultant: In Argentina, the improved rainfall over the past few weeks came too late for most of the early planted soybeans although they may help some of the late planted crop
  • T-storm Weather: After rain this weekend, another 0.25”-0.75” forecast for drought-stricken HRW wheat April 24-28

·       Export sales of U.S. wheat week end April 12: -2.5 mbu—a marketing year low—& sharply below last year’s 15.2 mbu

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLK18+$0.26 @ $68.55; EBN, +$0.22 @ $73.34; EBN-QCLN-$0.02;RBK+.0109NGK, +.009HOK​, +.0079

·       On Thursday, cash ethanol markets were mixed: Chicago was quoted at $1.5125, up $0.00875; Basis to Chicago—New York, +11 ¼; Gulf, +9; Dallas, +7 ¼; Tampa, +20 ¼; and LA, +22

·       On Thursday, ethanol RINs were higher: 2017’s firmed 1 ¾ to 29 ½-30; and 2018’s gained 7/8 to 37-38 ½

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread widened $.0031 to +$.56940/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY              &n​bsp;                

  • Ch​oice boxed beef values eased 30-cents on Thursday to $211.34, and are $1.14 lower compared to last week
  • Estimates for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Apr 1 on feed, 107.4%; Mar placements, 89.8%; Marketed in Mar 96.0%
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 4-cents on Thu. to $67.50, and is up $2.09 vs. a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index was $0.92 higher on Thu. at $55.97.  May futures gained $0.30 and are $14.18 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

       



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