HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Lower: CH, -$.0175; SH, -$.0450; WH, -$.0450; KWH, -$.0375

·       MACRO:  Global equity market turmoil continues unabated; soaring U.S. budget deficit at a time when the economy is doing well has many scratching their heads.  ASIA—Sharply lower:  Nikkei, -2.32%; Shanghai, -4.02%; Hang Seng, -3.10%.  EUROPE: A little weaker: DAX, -0.35%; FTSE, -0.25%; CAC, -0.523%.  WALL STREET Futures—Could we start firmer? —DOW futures, +104;  S&P, +14.75; NAS, +36.75.  EXTERNALS: $ Index:+.109 @ 90.225; Feb Gold: -$0.30 @ $1,317; Mar crude: -$.67 @ $60.48

• T-storm Weather:  The main rain event of the next 10 days develops the next 24-36 hours in Argentina with some significant amounts central and north while the southern regions will see very little in the way of precipitation. A week of dry weather accompanied by some coolness before temperatures elevate 10-14 days out and produce some thunderstorms but with only limited amounts
• CH, down $.0175 @ $3.64; CK, down $.0150 @ $3.7175.  The funds bought 3 K on Report Day                    
• SH, dn $.0450 @ $9.8325; SK, dn $.0425 @ $9.9550.  Funds bought 6 SB, 8 SBM, sold 4 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.18, +$.05; LY: $.75
• WH, down $.0450 @ $4.5175; WK, down $.0450 @ $4.6475.  The funds sold an estimated 5 K on Thursday  

 

CORN/SORGHUM

• March 2018 corn futures  closed at $3.65 ¾ —the highest settlement price for the contract since Oct. 25

·       Although there was only limited market reaction, the USDA caught the trade off-guard by cutting corn carry-out 115 mbu more than expected to 2.352 billion (all due to higher export demand).  Milo carry-out steady at 24 mbu

·       Argentina corn crop trimmed 3 MMT to 49; Brazil estimate held steady at 95.0 million tonnes

·       Corn export sales again strong at 69.7 million; 4-week average of 68.4 million/week is over a 20-year seasonal high

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• November ‘18 soybean futures closed at $10.04 ½; one year ago, November 2017 futures settled at $10.26

·       Argentina/Brazil production changes offset each other:  former down 2 to 54.0; the latter, 2 higher at 112.0

·       US carry-out rises 60 mbu to 530 million for a stx/use ratio of 12.7%, largest cushion since 18.8%/574 in 06/07

·       Export Sales--Beans @ 27.3 topped the 15-26 trade range; SBM on the weak side at 161 K (150-450) as was SBO @ 7.8

·       Brazil/Paraguay should see near-normal rainfall amounts the next two weeks.  Here in the U.S., SRW areas will benefit from some good moisture amounts while amounts in the drought-stricken HRW areas will be more modest

·       Wheat carry-out rose 30 mbu to 1.009 billion—exports cut 25 and food use raised 5. Trade was expecting a 988 #

·       Wheat Export Sales were routine at 14.5 (7-18 expected and 12.4/week needed)

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLH18, -$.67 @ $60.48; EBJ, -$.45 @ $64.36; EBJ-QCLJ, +$.16; RBH, -.0047;NGH, -.061; HOH, -.0130

·       Wednesday’s cash ethanol markets were a little firme: Chicago was 3/8’s of a cent higher at $1.39875; Basis to Chicago—New York, +10 ½; Gulf, +9 5/8; Dallas, +6 1/8; Tampa, +17 1/8; and LA, +22 1/8, up 1 5/8’s

·       Ethanol RINs firmed: 2016’s, up 6 3/8’s to 60 1/8-66 11/2; 2017’s +6 ¼ to 61-67 ¼; & 2018’s, +6 ½ 61 ½ - 68

·       The Mar RBOB/Mar ethanol spread eased $.0080, as it retreated to +$.3500/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                     ​                

• Choice boxed beef values fell $0.84 on Thursday to $208.53 and are $1.07 lower compared to last week   
• Cash cattle have yet to trade with a wide spread between packer bids of $124 (live) and asking prices of $129 to $130

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $0.06 on Thursday to $76.40 and is down $4.25 vs. a week ago

• CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.25 on Thu. to $75.63.  February futures fell $0.45, & are $2.23 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather