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MARKET TREND Higher CZ up 1, SX up 7, WZ up 1

October 25, 2017 07:35 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Higher:  CZ: up $.0075; SX: up $.07; WZ: up $.02; KWZ: up $.0150 

·        MACRO:  Overseas markets are mostly higher; U.S. futures point to a lower opening with news being rather scarce. ASIA—Mostly higher:  Nikkei, -0.45%; Shanghai, +0.30%; Hang Seng, +0.53%EUROPE: Mostly firmer: DAX, +0.02%; FTSE, -0.20%; CAC, +0.23%.   WALL STREET—Futures are weaker—DOW, -3; S&P, -3; NAS, -11.00.  EXTERNALS:  $ Index+.114 @ 93.775; Gold-$5.40 @ $1,270; Dec crude:-$0.17 @ $52.30/bl. 

  • Weather: Dry weather is forecast in the Western U.S. Corn Belt through Thu.  Light rain is projected in the north on Fri., followed by dry weather on Sat.-Sun.  Temps are forecast to be above normal on Wed.-Thu., below to much below normal Fri.-Sun.  In the Eastern Corn Belt dry conditions or some light rain is forecast for Wed., followed by dry weather on Thu.  Rain develops later Fri. into Sat.  Temps are projected to be below normal on Wed., near to above normal Thu.-Fri. and near to below normal on Sat.
  • CZ, up $.0075 @ $3.5350; CH, up $.0075 @ $3.6750.  Fund buying totaled 3 K yesterday      
  • SX, up $.07 @ $9.8250; SF, up $.0750 @ $9.9325.  Funds:  Sold 3 K SB, 3 K SBO & 2 SBM.  Board Crush: $.93, -2; LY: $.81
  • WZ, up $.02 @ $4.40; WH, up $.01 @ $4.5750.  The funds purchased 1 K in Tuesday’s trading session

 CORN/SORGHUM

  • Weather: Latest National Weather Service 6-10 day forecast for Oct. 30-Nov. 3 calling for below-normal precip across all of the Central & Southern Plains, normal rain for the Central Midwest & above normal for the Eastern Corn Belt
  • ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. corn exports has slipped from mid-20 mbu per week range to the low to mid-20s

·        Consultant: It’s possible full-season corn acreage in Brazil could end up being even smaller than originally anticipated

·        Ethanol margins: $0.21 per gallon—unchanged last week but well below $0.61 in 2016.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

·        Through Oct. 24, the 2017 crop insurance harvest price for December 2017 corn futures has averaged $3.4951

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        ATI Research: Mixed prospects for U.S. soybean harvest this week; dryness favors active pace in west but rain slowing progress in the east.  The 5-year avg. increase in harvest from Oct. 22-29 is 11%; largest gain since 2009 in 2014 (16%)

  • ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports remains in the 80-90 mbu per week range
  • Through Oct. 24, the 2017 crop insurance harvest price for November 2017 soybean futures has averaged $9.7547

·        Weather: Most dry weather is forecast over wheat production areas of Western Australia throughThursday

·        ATI Research: Active winter wheat planting likely this week across Central/Southern Plains; slow in Eastern Corn Belt

ENERGY

·        Mixed:  CLZ17-$.17 @ $52.30; EBZ-$0.09 @ $58.24; EBZ-QCLZ+$0.07; RBZ+.0045; NGZ, -.016;HOZ, +.0046

·        EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -2.2 (+0.5); Gasoline, +0.0 (-5.8); Distillates, -0.9 (-4.9)

·        Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Tuesday: Chicago, Dallas and Tampa down ½; New York up ½; Gulf added 3/8;  and LA was 2 ¼ lower at $1.54 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs posted additional gains on Tuesday: 2016’s and 2017’s firmed 2 ¾ to 91-96

·        The Nov RBOB/Nov ethanol spread widened $.0362 yesterday, moving out to +$.29550/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;             

  • Choice boxed beef values firmed 88-cents on Tue. to $200.13—the first time choice has topped $200 since Aug. 10
  • New contract highs made Tue. for February, April, June, August, October (2018) & December (2018) live cattle futures

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 31-cents on Tuesday to $75.49, and is $1.61 higher vs. last week

  • CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.87 on Tue. at $66.10.  December futures gained $0.50 but are $2.075 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN

 



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