HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Higher: CZ, +$.0075; SX, +$.0625; WZ, +$.0450; KWZ, +$.0450. 
• MACRO:  Futures suggest a higher start; overseas markets are up; JPMorga, Wells Fargo & Citi release earnings today. ASIA: Recovers, some: Nikkei, 0.46%; Shanghai, +0.91%; Hang Seng, +2.12%.  EUROPE: Positive:  DAX, +0.49%; FTSE, +0.71%; CAC, +0.43%.  WALL STREET: Futures point to modest bounce-back: DOW, +185; S&P, +24.25; NAS,+104.75.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude: +$0.37 @ $71.34; Dec Gold: -$3.20@ $1,224; Dec $ Index, +0.079 @ 94.785. Del’y: SBM, 0; SBO, 107; ETOH, 0

·        T-storm Weather: Some showers affect Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri today, while the rest of the central U.S. stays dry.  The remnant of Hurricane Sergio and a cool front combine to produce rain within the southern third of the central U.S. over Sat.-Mon., but heavy totals are only expected in / adjacent HRW wheat areas of Oklahoma.  Otherwise, dry weather occurs through Monday, and affects all areas for an extended period next week, improving conditions for planting and harvesting with time

·       CZ, up $.0075 @ $3.70; CH, up $.0050 @ $3.8175.  NASS yield reduction encourages Funds to buy 20 K 

• SX, up $.0625 @ $8.6450; SF, up $.06 @ $8.8125.  Funds: Buy 3 SB, 1 SBM & 0 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.58, -2, LY: $.92
• WZ, up $.0450 @ $5.1250; WH, up $.0450 @ $5.1825.  Fund activity on Report Day was even      

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 39-59 mbu for 18/19 corn

• T-storm Weather: Little to no rain impacts primary U.S. corn producing areas for at least 7 to 10 days, improving conditions for harvest

·       ATI Research: The USDA’s updated 2018/19 U.S. corn carry-out forecast of 1.813 bbu came in 119 mbu below the average trade estimate, reflecting a 0.6 bpa reduction in yield (trade was expecting a 0.5 bpa INCREASE)

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,040,000 barrels/day for week end Oct. 5—up 25 thou v. prior week and up 7.5% v. last year   

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 29-48 for 18/19 soybeans; soymeal, 150-450 for 18/19; soyoil, 5-26 for 18/19 

• T-storm Weather: Little to no rain impacts most U.S. soybeans for at least 7-10 days, improving conditions for harvest
• ATI Research: USDA only raised its U.S. soybean yield by 0.3 bpa—about one-half the amount expected by the trade.  That, and a 0.5 million-acre reduction in harv acreage kept the carry-out forecast from edging closer to 950 mbu

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-22 mbu for 18/19 all wheat

·       ATI Research: U.S. all wheat carry-out forecast of 0.956 bbu was right in line with the trade.  Reduction of 1.5 MMT in Australia crop was expected; nothing bullish in the numbers overall

ENERGY

·       Mostly firm: CLX18, +$0.37 @ $71.34; EBZ, +$0.30 @ $80.56; EBZ-QCLX, -$0.10; RBX, +0.01; NGX, +.04; HOX, -.0027

·       Chicago ethanol eased $.01 Thursday to $1.2965; basis levels vs Chicago were generally lower—New York, -$0.0025 @ $.1035; Gulf, -$.0125 @ $.0885; Dallas, -$.0150 @ $.0535; Tampa, -$.01 @ $.1835 and LA, +$.0050 @ $.1235    

·       Ethanol RINs weakened: 2017’s, -5/8 @ 7 ½ -10; 2018’s, -5/8 @ 11 ¼-12; 2019’s, -5/8 @ 13 ¼-14               

·       The Nov RBOB/Nov ethanol spread was again tighter, in $.0827 to+$.6277 per gallon yesterday   

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                      

Choice boxed beef values firmed 40-cents on Thursday to $202.51 but are still down $1.35 compared to last week 

Dressed steer weight for week end Sep. 29: 900 lbs, up 4 lbs v. last week, 894 for the 4-week avg. and 894 last year

USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 64-cents on Thursday to $76.83 and is $1.40 lower vs. a week ago

CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.06 on Thu. to $69.28.  October futures firmed $0.20 but are $0.605 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

           

HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Higher: CZ, +$.0075; SX, +$.0625; WZ, +$.0450; KWZ, +$.0450. 
• MACRO:  Futures suggest a higher start; overseas markets are up; JPMorga, Wells Fargo & Citi release earnings today. ASIA: Recovers, some: Nikkei, 0.46%; Shanghai, +0.91%; Hang Seng, +2.12%.  EUROPE: Positive:  DAX, +0.49%; FTSE, +0.71%; CAC, +0.43%.  WALL STREET: Futures point to modest bounce-back: DOW, +185; S&P, +24.25; NAS,+104.75.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude: +$0.37 @ $71.34; Dec Gold: -$3.20@ $1,224; Dec $ Index, +0.079 @ 94.785. Del’y: SBM, 0; SBO, 107; ETOH, 0

·        T-storm Weather: Some showers affect Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri today, while the rest of the central U.S. stays dry.  The remnant of Hurricane Sergio and a cool front combine to produce rain within the southern third of the central U.S. over Sat.-Mon., but heavy totals are only expected in / adjacent HRW wheat areas of Oklahoma.  Otherwise, dry weather occurs through Monday, and affects all areas for an extended period next week, improving conditions for planting and harvesting with time

·       CZ, up $.0075 @ $3.70; CH, up $.0050 @ $3.8175.  NASS yield reduction encourages Funds to buy 20 K 

• SX, up $.0625 @ $8.6450; SF, up $.06 @ $8.8125.  Funds: Buy 3 SB, 1 SBM & 0 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.58, -2, LY: $.92
• WZ, up $.0450 @ $5.1250; WH, up $.0450 @ $5.1825.  Fund activity on Report Day was even      

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 39-59 mbu for 18/19 corn

• T-storm Weather: Little to no rain impacts primary U.S. corn producing areas for at least 7 to 10 days, improving conditions for harvest

·       ATI Research: The USDA’s updated 2018/19 U.S. corn carry-out forecast of 1.813 bbu came in 119 mbu below the average trade estimate, reflecting a 0.6 bpa reduction in yield (trade was expecting a 0.5 bpa INCREASE)

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,040,000 barrels/day for week end Oct. 5—up 25 thou v. prior week and up 7.5% v. last year   

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 29-48 for 18/19 soybeans; soymeal, 150-450 for 18/19; soyoil, 5-26 for 18/19 

• T-storm Weather: Little to no rain impacts most U.S. soybeans for at least 7-10 days, improving conditions for harvest
• ATI Research: USDA only raised its U.S. soybean yield by 0.3 bpa—about one-half the amount expected by the trade.  That, and a 0.5 million-acre reduction in harv acreage kept the carry-out forecast from edging closer to 950 mbu

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-22 mbu for 18/19 all wheat

·       ATI Research: U.S. all wheat carry-out forecast of 0.956 bbu was right in line with the trade.  Reduction of 1.5 MMT in Australia crop was expected; nothing bullish in the numbers overall

ENERGY

·       Mostly firm: CLX18, +$0.37 @ $71.34; EBZ, +$0.30 @ $80.56; EBZ-QCLX, -$0.10; RBX, +0.01; NGX, +.04; HOX, -.0027

·       Chicago ethanol eased $.01 Thursday to $1.2965; basis levels vs Chicago were generally lower—New York, -$0.0025 @ $.1035; Gulf, -$.0125 @ $.0885; Dallas, -$.0150 @ $.0535; Tampa, -$.01 @ $.1835 and LA, +$.0050 @ $.1235    

·       Ethanol RINs weakened: 2017’s, -5/8 @ 7 ½ -10; 2018’s, -5/8 @ 11 ¼-12; 2019’s, -5/8 @ 13 ¼-14               

·       The Nov RBOB/Nov ethanol spread was again tighter, in $.0827 to+$.6277 per gallon yesterday   

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                             ​         

• Choice boxed beef values firmed 40-cents on Thursday to $202.51 but are still down $1.35 compared to last week 
• Dressed steer weight for week end Sep. 29: 900 lbs, up 4 lbs v. last week, 894 for the 4-week avg. and 894 last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 64-cents on Thursday to $76.83 and is $1.40 lower vs. a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.06 on Thu. to $69.28.  October futures firmed $0.20 but are $0.605 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather