HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Higher:  CZ, +$.0075; SX, +$.04; WZU, +$.0625; KWZ, +$.0875.
• MACRO:  Yesterday’s tarrif announcements were more “measured” than expected; overseas markets react favorably; BOJ maintains its ultra-easy money policy.  ASIA: Up: Nikkei, +1.08%; Shanghai, +1.14%; Hang Seng, +1.19%.  EUROPE: Higher: DAX,+0.20%; FTSE, +0.03%; CAC, +0.30%.  WALL STREET: Futures are mostly weaker:DOW, +4; S&P, -2.25; NAS, -1.50.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude: -$0.08 @ $69.77; Dec Gold: +$5.00 @ $1,208; Dec $ Index, -0.207 @ 94.020. 

·        T-storm Weather: Numerous heavy thunderstorm clusters affect the northwest third to half of the Corn Belt and adjacent areas of the Plains through Thursday, while dry and mild weather continue to aid corn / soybean harvesting and wheat planting elsewhere.  Thereafter, widespread rain affects the central / southern Plains Friday, followed by at least some rain within the southeast Corn Belt and Delta Saturday-Sunday

·       CZ, up $.0075 @ $3.44; CH, up $.0075 @ $3.5625.  The funds again sold 10 K on Tuesday            

• SX, up $.04 @ $8.18; SF, up $.04 @ $8.32.  Funds: Sold 7 SB, 5 SBM & 5 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.45, 0, LY: $.85
• WZ, up $.0625 @ $5.1675; WH, up $.0625 @ $5.3525.  Estimated fund buying yesterday totaled 3 K      

CORN/SORGHUM

• T-storm Weather: Looking at the extended forecast for U.S. corn production, more rain develops across a wide area within next Mon.-Wed. (Sep. 24-26) as a large and strong system passes, followed by a cooler and drier period
• ATI Research: Based on data from 2001-2017, there is some justification for still larger U.S. corn yields in Oct. USDA Crop Production report.  The increase may be on the order of 185 million bushels (2.26 bpa) to 278 mbu (3.40 bpa)

·       Consultant: Brazil safrinha (double crop) corn acreage expected to rise due to good prices & increased soybean acres

·       Ethanol margins: $0.23 per gallon—unchanged vs. last week but well below $0.62 in 2016.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• ATI Research: Analysis—U.S. soybean yield may increase +0.43 bpa to +0.75 bpa  in Oct. USDA Crop Production report

·       T-storm Weather: The first frosts or freezes of the year occur in 10 to 14 days in northern soybean production areas of the Corn Belt and Plains, which is fairly typically-timed; highest threats are the mornings of Sep. 28-30

·       Chicago July 2019 wheat futures on Tue. closed at $5.46 ½.  One year ago, Chicago July 2018 wheat settled at $4.89 ¼

·       T-storm Weather: Sharply drier than normal over next 10 days for Australian wheat, but cool to very cool in the east

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLV18, -$0.08 @ $69.77; EBX, -$0.13 @ $78.90; EBX-QCLX, -$0.02; RBV, +0.0015; NGV, +.004; HOV, -.0084

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -2.7 (+1.2); Gasoline, -0.1 (-1.5); Distillates, +0.7 (+1.5).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.030 mbpd (range: 1.015-1.045).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 22.919 mb (range 22.746-23.144)

·       Chicago ethanol was 7/8’s of a cent weaker at $1.26 5/8’s; the basis to Chicago were weaker—New York, +$0.0887; Gulf, +$0.0587; Dallas, +$0.0687; Tampa, +$0.1938; and LA, +$0.2488

·       Ethanol RINs were ½ cent weaker; 2017’s @ 13 ½-14; 2018’s, 19 ½ -20    

·       The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol spread increased $.0362 to +$.7379 per gallon 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 &nbs​p;                    

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• Choice boxed beef values declined 75-cents on Tuesday to $205.29 and are down 78-cents compared to last week
• Estimates for Sep. 21 USDA Cattle on Feed: Sep. 1 on feed, 105.3%; Placed in Aug, 104.0%; Marketed in Aug, 100.1%
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased $1.53 on Tuesday to $76.22 and is $8.08 higher vs. a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $1.10 on Tue. to $54.58.  October futures gained $2.725 and are $4.595 above the index 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather