HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Higher: CU, +$.0225; SQ, +$.0475; WU, +$.0075; KWU, +$.0025
• MACRO:  Markets regroup after Tech sell-off.  Asia—Mostly Higher: Nikkei, +0.04%;Shanghai, +0.26%; Hang Seng, -0.52%.  EUROPE:  Mostly Weaker:  DAX, -0.13%;FTSE, +0.16%; CAC, -0.02%.  WALL STREET: Futures—Firmer: DOW, +7; S&P, +3.75;NAS, +7.75.  EXTERNALS: Sep crude: -$0.41 @ $69.72; Aug Gold: -$4.30 @ $1,217;Dec $ Index, -.016 @ 93.690. DEL’Y: SBO, 1,591; SB, 451

·       T-storm Weather: Coolness prevails over the next few days, followed by sharp warming from west to east over Thu.-Sat.  A very warm to hot period follows for an extended period, especially with westward extent into the Plains and western Corn Belt where maximums in the mid-90s to upper-90s will be common.  Beyond some showers and thunderstorms within the Corn Belt through Wed., most rain over the next 10 days falls within Sat.-Thu. (Aug. 4-9) in the Corn Belt

·       CU, up $.0225 @ $3.6950; CZ, up $.0225 @ $3.8350.  Fund buying totaled 6 K, wheat worries as well as near-term forecast                       

• SQ, up $.0475 @ $8.7975; SU, up $.05 @ $8.8575.  Funds: Bot 4 SB, 2 SBM, sld 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.71, -$.05 LY: $.89
• WU, up $.0050 @ $5.47; WZ, unch @$5.6650.  The funds opened the week buying 5 K—EU crop concerns                           &​nbsp;                        <​wbr>  

CORN/SORGHUM

·     ​  U.S. corn crop is rated 72% Good/Excellent, steady with last week but above 61% last year.  Despite recent cool temps, crop development remains well ahead of normal: dough is at 38% vs. 21% last year & the 5-year avg. of 20%

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2018 U.S. corn crop is 175.7 bpa versus July USDA projection of 174.0.  U.S. corn ending stocks for 18/19 are now forecast at 1.624 bbu

• T-storm Weather: It is plausible for a drier period to follow / continue beyond Aug. 9 for the Corn Belt as upper-level high pressure becomes large enough in the western U.S. to block storm systems from passing

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean crop rated 70% Good/Excellent, steady with last week but above 59% last year.  Blooming is at 86% v. 80% last year & the 5-year avg. of 77%, while setting pods is at 60% v. 45% last year & the 5-year avg. of 41%

·       ATI Research: Updated yield est. for 2018 U.S. soybean crop is 49.2 bpa vs. July USDA projection of 48.5.  U.S. soybean ending stocks for 18/19 now forecast at 677 mbu as U.S. exports decline vs. 17/18 due to reduced shipments to China

• ATI Research: U.S. hard red spring wheat crop est. declines 21 mbu to 566 mbu as lower-than-expected ATI Spring Wheat Tour est. for North Dakota is incorporated.  U.S. winter wheat harvest: 85% vs. 87% last year & 86% 5-year avg. 
• T-storm Weather: Despite some rain next 10 days for Australia wheat, light totals are expected and drought continues

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLU18, -$0.41 @ $69.72; EBU, -$0.21 @ $74.76; EBU-QCLU, +$0.19; RBU,-.0091; NGU, -.0​06; HOU, -.0122

·       On Monday, cash ethanol markets were mixed: Chicago was quoted at $1.4525, down $0.0105; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.105; Gulf, +$0.115; Dallas, +$0.0625; Tampa, +$0.1875; and LA, +$0.2425

·       Ethanol RINs were steady to slightly higher on Monday: 2017’s unchanged at 14 ½-15; but 2018’s up ¼ at 20 ½-21

·       The August RBOB/August ethanol spread gave up $.0176 Monday, narrowing to$.7073/gallon 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             &nb​sp;                        

• Choice boxed beef values fell 42-cents on Monday to $204.72, and are 10-cents lower vs. a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price eased $0.88 v. last week to $111.73/cwt and is $5.43 lower v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value plummeted $2.41 on Monday to $73.86, & is $5.22 lower vs. last week
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $19.63/cwt vs. last week’s $20.62, last month’s $28.70 & last year’s $34.90

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather