HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Higher: CU, +$.0175; SU, +$.09; WU, +$.1025; KWU, +$.10
• MACRO:  Global stocks rise, trade uncertainties ease: Europe gains on solid earnings.  Asia—Higher: Nikkei, +0.69%; Shanghai, +2.74%; Hang Seng, +1.54%.  EUROPE:  Firmer: DAX, +0.93%; FTSE, +0.95%; CAC, +0.87%.  WALL STREET: Futures are higher: DOW, +87;S&P, +6.25; NAS, +23.00.  EXTERNALS: Sep crude: +$0.66 @ $69.67; Aug Gold: +$5.70 @ $1,21; Dec $ Index, -.277 @ 94.50. DEL’Y: SBO, 732; SB, 799

·      T-storm Weather: Over the next 10 days, the northwest half of corn and soybeans (and all spring wheat) are likely to be much drier than normal as areas of high pressure suppress rainfall.  Areas to the east also turn drier, but after 0.75" to 1.50" over the next several days as a cool front sags southward.  Temperatures will initially be seasonable, then turn hot in the Plains Thu.-Fri., after which heat expands into the Corn Belt for a few days next week

·      CU, up $.0175 @ $3.7275; CZ, up $.0225 @ $3.8750.  The funds bought 3 K on Monday

• SU, up $.09 @ $8.9175; SX, up $.0875 @ $9.0250.  Funds: Sold 4 SB, 1 SBM, 0 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.53, +$.03, LY: $.87
• WU, up $.10 @ $5.8450; WZ, up $.10 @ $5.96.  Fund buying estimated at 6 K                                                        

 

CORN/SORGHUM

&mi​ddot;      U.S. corn crop is rated 71% Good/Excellent, down a point vs. last week but above 60% last year.  Crop development remains well ahead of normal: dough is at 57% vs. 39% last year & the 5-year avg. of 37%

·      ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2018 U.S. corn crop is 175.7 bpa versus July USDA projection of 174.0.  U.S. corn ending stocks for 18/19 are now forecast at 1.536 bbu

• T-storm Weather: Some heat is probable for Corn Belt Aug. 12-14; but a system is probable to pass later next week, at least temporarily returning temps to near-normal levels, while also triggering some thunderstorms in 10 to 14 days

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      U.S. soybean crop rated 67% Good/Excellent, down three points vs. last week but above 60% last year.  Blooming is at 92% v. 89% last year & the 5-year avg. of 86%, while setting pods is at 75% v. 63% last year & the 5-year avg. of 58%

·      ATI Research: Updated yield est. for 2018 U.S. soybean crop is 49.0 bpa vs. July USDA projection of 48.5.  U.S. soybean ending stocks for 18/19 now forecast at 639 mbu

• ATI Research: U.S. hard red spring wheat crop est. declines 3 mbu to 563 mbu.  Harvest is at 13% vs. 22% last year and the avg. of 14%.  U.S. winter wheat harvest: 90% vs. 93% last year and 92% for the five-year avg. 
• T-storm Weather: Strong to severe drought intensifies over next 7-10 days for ~30% of wheat production in Australia

ENERGY

·      Higher: CLU18, +$0.66 @ $69.67; EBV, +$1.06 @ $74.81; EBV-QCLV, +$0.25; RBU,+.0329; NGU, +.008; HOU, +.0345

·      On Monday, cash ethanol markets were mostly lower: Chicago was quoted at $1.4350, down $0.0125; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.11; Gulf, +$0.09; Dallas, +$0.07; Tampa, +$0.20; and LA, +$0.20

·      Ethanol RINs were mixed on Monday: 2017’s up ¼ at 15-16; but 2018’s off ¼ at 20-21

·      The September RBOB/August ethanol spread gave up $.0026 on Friday, closing at$.6311/gallon

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                &nb​sp;                      

• Choice boxed beef values increased 93-cents on Monday to $205.68 and are 96-cents higher compared to last week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price firmed $1.25 v. last week to $112.98/cwt but is $4.32 lower v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 91-cents on Mon. to $71.78 but is $2.08 lower vs. a week ago
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $19.16/cwt vs. last week’s $19.63, last month’s $27.17 & last year’s $36.24

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather