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MARKET TREND Higher CN, Up 5, SN, Up 7, WN, Up 8

May 18, 2018 07:18 AM

Basting, Brian BBasting@advance-trading.com

Attachments6:23 AM (54 minutes ago)
 
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HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Higher: CN, +$.0525; SN, +$.1025; WN, +$.08; KWN, +$.085. 
  • MACRO:  A mostly higher trend is noted in global stocks as the market monitors the latest round of trade talks between U.S. and Chinese officials.  Asia—Higher:Nikkei, +0.40%; Shanghai, +1.23%; Hang Seng, +0.34%.  EUROPE: Mixed: DAX,+0.01%; FTSE, -0.11%; CAC, +0.059%.  WALL STREET: Futures are firmer: DOW, +69;S&P, +4.75; NAS, +15.50.  EXTERNALS: June crude: +$0.03 @ $71.52; Aug Gold: -$2.97 @ $1,287; $ Index+.145 @ 93.520

·       T-storm Weather: Large systems affect the northwest and southeast thirds of the central U.S. through Sunday, producing significant rainfall.  An axis of surface-level high pressure between limits rainfall, most notably resulting in drying over the next 42 hours in / near wettest areas of northern Illinois and Wisconsin, but only 18 to 30 hours in Michigan.  A warm front aligns in the central U.S. next week, causing thunderstorm clusters to form, especially within the Corn Belt within May 21-26

·       CN, up $.0525 @ $4.005; CU, up $.0575 @ $4.0925.  The funds sold 10 K yesterday                     

  • SN, up $.1025 @ $10.05; SQ, up $.105 @ $10.0875. Funds: Sold 5 SB and 3 SBM; bought 5 SBO.
  • WN, up $.08 @ $5.055; WU, up $.08 @ $5.215.  Fund buying: 4 K       

CORN/SORGHUM

  • ATI Research: The 5-year average. for U.S. corn emergence increases approx. 20% fromMay 13-20 to approx. 47%
  • T-storm Weather: In Brazil, 0.75"-1.50" of rain affects the southern ~30% of second-crop (safrinha) corn in Brazil Fri.-Sat., while 0.25"-0.75" affects the rest.  A few more thunderstorms may follow one week after rain exits in the south

·       ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales of 38.8 mbu for week end May 10 were up 42% from last week and 15% v. the 4-week avg.  Unshipped export sales of 725 mbu are up 38% v. last year and are a record for this time of year

·       December 2018 corn futures on Thursday closed at $4.13, the lowest settlement price for the contract since April 26

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       July 2018 soybean futures on Thursday closed at $9.95--the lowest settlement price for the contract since Feb. 5

·       ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. soybean emergence increases approx. 9% fromMay 13-20 to approx. 15%

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean export sales of 10.4 mbu for week end May 10 were down 20% from last week and 48% v. 4-week avg.  However, unshipped export sales of 397 mbu are up 57% v. last year & are a record for this time of year

  • ATI Research: U.S. wheat export sales week end May 10: 17/18, 2.3 mbu (9.1 last year); 18/19, 4.8 mbu (14.4 in 2017).  Combined unshipped old- & new-crop sales of all wheat are just 157 mbu—down 35% v. last year and  a 9-year low
  • T-storm Weather: At least 1.00” of rain impacts U.S. spring wheat across eastern ND & northwest MN through Sunday

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLM18+$.03 @ $71.52; EBN, +$.30 @ $79.60; EBN-QCLN, +$0.25RBM,+.0112NGM, -.003HOM, +.00660

·       On Thursday, cash ethanol markets were weaker: Chicago was quoted at $1.44125, down $0.00625; Basis to Chicago—New York, +10 ¼; Gulf, +11 ¼; Dallas, +5 ¼; Tampa, +17 ¼; and LA, +23 ¼

·       On Thursday, ethanol RINs eased: 2017’s declined 1 ½ to 24-26; and 2018’s were down 1 at 31-32

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol spread widened by $.0082 yesterday to +$.78710/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                            ​;         

  • Choice boxed beef values firmed $1.65 on Thursday to $232.68, and is $1.61 higher compared to last week
  • Dressed steer weight for week end May 5: 849 lbs, down 1 lb v. last week, 861.25 for 4-week avg. & 832 last year
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.34 higher on Thu. at $74.64, and is up $3.06 vs. a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.87 on Thu. to $67.01.  June futures firmed $0.575 and are $9.465 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

                      



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