HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Higher: CN, +$.0250; SN, +$.07; WN, +$.0450; KWN, +$.0450
• MACRO:  Trade worries persist, pushing Asian equity markets lower; Chinese growth concerns escalate.  Optimists hope solid earnings will support U.S. values in the 2^nd quarter.  Asia—Lower: Nikkei, -0.31%; Shanghai, -1.11%; Hang Seng, -1.82%.  EUROPE: Mostly firm:  DAX, +0.23; FTSE, +0.07%; CAC, +.01%.  WALL STREET: Futures are agasin lower: DOW, -95; S&P, -7.75; NAS, -46.25.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude: +$0.60 @ $71.13; Aug Gold: +$0.70 @ $1,2561; Dec $ Index, +.099 @ 94.000

·       T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms affect the eastern half of the Corn Belt today.  Intense heat then overspreads most corn and soybeans through Thu.-Fri. as maximums soar to the mid- to upper-90s and minimums hold in the low-70s to low-80s.  Thunderstorms affect the northwest half of the central U.S. over Fri.-Sun. as cooler air approaches and passes, producing 0.75" to 1.50" in the northern Plains and northwest half of the Corn Belt

·       CN, up $.0250 @ $3.55; CU, up $.03 @ $3.6425.  Fund selling slowed on Tuesday, with 5 being liquidated                  

• SN, up $.07 @ $8.7425; SQ, up $.0675 @ $8.7975.  Funds: sold 6 SB, 3 SBM; 0 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.85, +$.09; LY: $.88
• WN, dn $.0450 @ $4.74; WU, up $.0450 @ $4.8050.  Fund selling continues, 8 K yesterday in addition to the 10 K on Monday                                              

CORN/SORGHUM

• T-storm Weather: Heat breaks Sat. in northern Plains & Sun. across northern half of Corn Belt, but seasonable to cool weather only last 2 days; heat re-assembles July 2-4.  Some rain occurs in the east next week, but unlikely heavy totals
• ATI Research: The near-term outlook for U.S. corn exports is 58.9 mbu per week.  The new range is 55.0-62.8; our bias is unchanged at 55-65 mbu per week

·       Consultant: Brazil corn production est. is unchanged this week at 81.0 MMT with a neutral to slightly lower bias

·       Ethanol margins: $0.28 per gallon—down vs. $0.30 last week and below $0.32 in 2017.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT  

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• ATI Research: This week’s forecast for near-term U.S. soybean exports improved to 23.0 mbu per week.  The forecasted range is 21.2-24.8 per week; our bias is unchanged at 20-25 mbu per week

·       Consultant: Soybean crop estimates for Brazil & Argentina unchanged this week at 117.0 MMT & 36.0, respectively

·       KC HRW July 2018 wheat futures on Tuesday tumbled to $4.54—the lowest price for the contract since Jan. 24

·       T-storm Weather: Drought is forecast to continue over the next 7-10 days for winter wheat in southwest Russia

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLQ18, +$.60 @ $71.13; EBQ, +$0.37 @ $76.68; EBQ-QCLQ, -$0.25; RBQ, +.0135; NGQ, +.039; HOQ, +.0133

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -2.8 (-9.2); Gasoline, +0.7 (+1.2); Distillates, +1.0 (+1.8).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.059 mil barrels/day (range 1.045-1.070).  Avg. est. for ethanol stocks is 21.7 mil barrels (range 21.5-22.0)

·       On Tuesday, cash ethanol markets were slightly firmer: Chicago was quoted at $1.3925, up $0.00625; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.14; Gulf, +$0.085; Dallas, +$0.12; Tampa, +$0.25; and LA, +$0.2675 

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker on Tuesday: 2017’s down 3 to 19-24; and 2018’s declined 2 to 25-30

·       The July RBOB/July ethanol spread expanded $.0241 to +$.6806/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        &nbs​p;            

• Choice boxed beef values eased 86-cents on Tuesday to $216.83 and are down $2.87 compared to a week ago
• Since posting a calendar year 2018 high of $232.68 on May 17, choice boxed beef has fallen $15.85 (6.8%)
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 82-cents on Tue. to $86.65 and is up $2.85 vs. last week 
• CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.57 on Tue. to $85.63.  July futures firmed $1.05 but are still $6.505 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather