HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—Higher: CN, +$.0175; SN, +$.0525; WN, +$.0575; KWN, +$.0675
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MACRO: Global equity markets are higher this morning despite no sign of U.S/China trade tensions abating. Asia—Higher: Nikkei, +1.24%; Shanghai, +0.31%;Hang Seng, +0.77%. EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.46%; FTSE, +1.19%; CAC, +0.35%. WALL STREET: Futures are pleasantly higher: DOW, +126; S&P, +9.55; NAS, +24.50. EXTERNALS: July crude: +$0.42 @ $65.49; Aug Gold: -$4.20 @ $1,274; Dec $ Index,+.106 @ 94.385
· T-storm Weather: A cool and/or stormy period produces heavy rain for most U.S. corn, soybeans, winter wheat, & around half of spring wheat next 10 days, only missing far-northern areas of Corn Belt & potentially eastern N Dakota. The final system passes June 26-28, which will allow hot upper-level high pressure to at least temporarily expand & envelop central U.S. Above-normal temps are probable June 28– July 3, but numerous important details will take days to resolve – especially with regard to rain
· CN, up $.0175 @ $3.5550; CU, up $.0150 @ $3.6475. The funds were again big sellers, reported at 30 K
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SN, up $.0525 @ $8.9425; SQ, up $.0525 @ $8.9950. Funds: sold 30 SB, 7 SBM; 10 SBO. Board Crush: $1.64 , +$.09; LY: $.86
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WN, up $.0575 @ $4.8350; WU, up $.0550 @ $4.95. More liquidation with the funds disposing of 10 K
CORN/SORGHUM
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July 2018 corn futures on Tuesday traded to $3.38 ¾--the lowest price for nearby corn futures since Dec. 14, 2017
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T-storm Weather: Above-normal temps are probable for U.S. corn June 28-July 3. We are forecasting some rain to accompany the setup, especially north & east, but less so in / near the central / southern Plains and western Corn Belt
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ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. corn exports remains in the 55-65 mbu per week range
· Consultant: Brazil corn production estimate was unchanged this week at 81.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias
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Ethanol margins: $0.30 per gallon—up vs. $0.29 last week but below $0.31 in 2017. EIA report at 9:30 am CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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July 2018 soybean futures on Tue. traded to $8.41 ½--the lowest price for nearby soybean futures since Dec. 16, 2008
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ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports remains in the 19-22 mbu per week range
· Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. is unchanged at a record 117.0 MMT with a neutral to slightly higher bias
· CBT July 2018 wheat futures on Tuesday traded $4.67 ½—the lowest price for the contract since April 4
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T-storm Weather: Much drier than normal conditions next 7-10 days for wheat in Russia & at least eastern Ukraine
ENERGY
· Higher: CLN18, +$.42 @ $65.49; EBQ, +$.41 @ $75.49; EBQ-QCLQ, +$0.02; RBN, +.0015; NGN, +.017; HON, +.0092
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -2.5 (-3.0); Gasoline, -0.2 (+2.1); Distillates, -0.1 (+0.8). Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.046 mil barrels/day (range 1.03-1.06). Avg. est. for ethanol stocks is 22.1 mil barrels (range 21.8-22.5)
· On Tuesday, cash ethanol markets were steady to slightly lower: Chicago was quoted at $1.385, down $0.004; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.1225; Gulf, +$0.0788; Dallas, +$0.10; Tampa, +$0.23; and LA, +$0.26
· Ethanol RINs were slightly weaker on Tuesday: 2017’s eased ¼ to 15-16 ½; and 2018’s declined 1 to 22-24
· The July RBOB/July ethanol spread lost $.0107 as it narrowed to +$.6449/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef values fell $1.01 on Tuesday to $219.70 and are $5.22 lower vs. last week
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Estimates for Friday USDA Cattle on Feed: June 1 on feed, 103.4%; May placements, 96.0%; Marketed in May 105.2%
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USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 50-cents on Tuesday to $83.80 and is $3.41 higher vs. a week ago
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CME Lean Hog Index gained $1.19 on Tue. to $84.05. July futures were $1.85 lower and are $2.175 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather