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MARKET TREND Higher CK, Up 1, SK, Up 2, WK, Up 3

April 23, 2018 08:05 AM

Shonkwiler, Larry

Attachments5:29 AM (2 hours ago)
 
to MorningJim
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Firmer: CK, +$.0175; SK, +$.0175; WK, +$.0225; KWK, +$.04255
  • MACRO: Market jitters over higher inflation, potentially tighter monetary policy and rising bond yields have most equity markets around the globe weaker this morning: Lower: Nikkei, -0.33%; Shanghai, -0.09%; Hang Seng, -0.54%.  EUROPE: Lower: DAX, -0.26%; FTSE, -0.05%; CAC, -0.185%.  WALL STREET: Futures are lower:DOW, -47 S&P, -3.75; NAS, -9.75.  EXTERNALS: Apr Gold-$8.30 @ $1,329; June crude: -$0.30 @ $68.10

·       T-storm Weather: Weekend weather was slightly wetter than expected within HRW wheat areas of/near south-central Kansas.  Rain will be limited within much of spring wheat belt & northwest two-thirds of Corn Belt over the next week, accompanied by coolness in Corn Belt & mildness in northern Plains.  Coolness over next 5-7 days likely produces the coldest April in Corn Belt in more than 124 years.  All areas turn and likely remain seasonable to mild in one week; varying areas of rain within April 30-May 6

·       CK, up $.0175 @ $3.7825; CN, up $.0150 @ $3.87. Heavy fund selling on Friday, estimated at 20 K              

  • SK, up $.0175 @ $10.3050; SN, up $.0175 @ $10.42. Funds: sold 6 SB, 2 SBO, bot 1 SBM. Board crush:  $1.39, +9; LY: $.81
  • WK, up $.0225 @ $4.6550; WN, up $.02 @ $4.7925.  The funds sold 8 K to close out the week   

 CORN/SORGHUM

  • May 2018 corn futures on Friday closed at $3.76 ½—the lowest settlement price for the contract since March 28
  • T-storm Weather: 1.00”-2.00” falls in the Delta & far-southern Corn Belt through today as a compact system passes.  The same system combines with another to produce 0.25”-0.50” within the southeast third of Corn Belt through Wed.
  • Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 56.2 mbu needed; 59.2 last week.  Milo—4.0 needed; 4.6 last week

·       ATI Research: Since 2009, the largest week-to-week increase in U.S. corn planting progress from April 22-29 was 25%, which was seen in 2012.  The five-year average increase in corn planting progress over the next week is 13%

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 25.4 mbu needed; 16.4 last week

·       T-storm Weather: Numerous thunderstorm clusters produce rainfall totals of 2.00” to 4.00” within Argentina over the next 10 days, slowing soybean harvesting

·       November 2018 soybean futures on Fri. closed at $10.35; one year ago, November 2017 soybeans settled at $9.59 ½

·       T-storm Weather: Over the weekend, 0.50” to 1.00: of rain alleviated drought in much of the U.S. HRW wheat belt, except for higher totals in/near south-central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT: Wheat, 22.7 needed; 17.7 last week

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLM18-$0.30@ $68.10; EBM, -$0.18@ $73.88; EBM-QCLM+$0.13RBM,-.0058NGM,&nb​sp;+.001HOM, -.0083

·       On Friday, cash ethanol markets were mostly lower: Chicago was quoted at $1.51, up $0.0025; Basis to Chicago—New York, +11 ½; Gulf, +9; Dallas, +6 ½; Tampa, +19 ½; and LA, +27

·       On Friday, ethanol RINs were slightly weaker: 2017’s eased ¼ to 29-30; and 2018’s declined ½ to 37-37 ½

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread gained $.02 ¾ on Friday, closing at+$.5969/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  ​                   

  • Choice boxed beef values increased 64-cents on Friday to $211.98, but are still down 63-cents vs. a week ago
  • Cattle on Feed: Apr 1 on feed, 107.4% (107.4% avg est); Mar place, 90.7% (89.8%); Mar Market, 96.1% (96.0%)
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 40-cents on Friday to $67.10, but is $1.58 higher vs. last week
  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.83 on Fri. to $56.80.  May futures eased $0.20 but are still $13.15 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

                    



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