HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—Firmer: CK, +$.0175; SK, +$.0175; WK, +$.0225; KWK, +$.04255
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MACRO: Market jitters over higher inflation, potentially tighter monetary policy and rising bond yields have most equity markets around the globe weaker this morning: Lower: Nikkei, -0.33%; Shanghai, -0.09%; Hang Seng, -0.54%. EUROPE: Lower: DAX, -0.26%; FTSE, -0.05%; CAC, -0.185%. WALL STREET: Futures are lower:DOW, -47 S&P, -3.75; NAS, -9.75. EXTERNALS: Apr Gold: -$8.30 @ $1,329; June crude: -$0.30 @ $68.10
· T-storm Weather: Weekend weather was slightly wetter than expected within HRW wheat areas of/near south-central Kansas. Rain will be limited within much of spring wheat belt & northwest two-thirds of Corn Belt over the next week, accompanied by coolness in Corn Belt & mildness in northern Plains. Coolness over next 5-7 days likely produces the coldest April in Corn Belt in more than 124 years. All areas turn and likely remain seasonable to mild in one week; varying areas of rain within April 30-May 6
· CK, up $.0175 @ $3.7825; CN, up $.0150 @ $3.87. Heavy fund selling on Friday, estimated at 20 K
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SK, up $.0175 @ $10.3050; SN, up $.0175 @ $10.42. Funds: sold 6 SB, 2 SBO, bot 1 SBM. Board crush: $1.39, +9; LY: $.81
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WK, up $.0225 @ $4.6550; WN, up $.02 @ $4.7925. The funds sold 8 K to close out the week
CORN/SORGHUM
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May 2018 corn futures on Friday closed at $3.76 ½—the lowest settlement price for the contract since March 28
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T-storm Weather: 1.00”-2.00” falls in the Delta & far-southern Corn Belt through today as a compact system passes. The same system combines with another to produce 0.25”-0.50” within the southeast third of Corn Belt through Wed.
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Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 56.2 mbu needed; 59.2 last week. Milo—4.0 needed; 4.6 last week
· ATI Research: Since 2009, the largest week-to-week increase in U.S. corn planting progress from April 22-29 was 25%, which was seen in 2012. The five-year average increase in corn planting progress over the next week is 13%
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 25.4 mbu needed; 16.4 last week
· T-storm Weather: Numerous thunderstorm clusters produce rainfall totals of 2.00” to 4.00” within Argentina over the next 10 days, slowing soybean harvesting
· November 2018 soybean futures on Fri. closed at $10.35; one year ago, November 2017 soybeans settled at $9.59 ½
· T-storm Weather: Over the weekend, 0.50” to 1.00: of rain alleviated drought in much of the U.S. HRW wheat belt, except for higher totals in/near south-central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT: Wheat, 22.7 needed; 17.7 last week
ENERGY
· Lower: CLM18, -$0.30@ $68.10; EBM, -$0.18@ $73.88; EBM-QCLM, +$0.13; RBM,-.0058; NGM, +.001; HOM, -.0083
· On Friday, cash ethanol markets were mostly lower: Chicago was quoted at $1.51, up $0.0025; Basis to Chicago—New York, +11 ½; Gulf, +9; Dallas, +6 ½; Tampa, +19 ½; and LA, +27
· On Friday, ethanol RINs were slightly weaker: 2017’s eased ¼ to 29-30; and 2018’s declined ½ to 37-37 ½
· The May RBOB/May ethanol spread gained $.02 ¾ on Friday, closing at+$.5969/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY
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Choice boxed beef values increased 64-cents on Friday to $211.98, but are still down 63-cents vs. a week ago
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Cattle on Feed: Apr 1 on feed, 107.4% (107.4% avg est); Mar place, 90.7% (89.8%); Mar Market, 96.1% (96.0%)
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USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 40-cents on Friday to $67.10, but is $1.58 higher vs. last week
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CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.83 on Fri. to $56.80. May futures eased $0.20 but are still $13.15 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
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