HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Higher:  CH, +$.0150; SH, +$.0725; WH, +$.0550; KWH, +$.0650.  GFS has turned sharply drier, no rain for Arg

·       MACRO: Global markets are higher early-on, looking ahead to Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony tomorrow before Congress.  No significant changes in the Fed outlook are expected.  Asia: Higher:  Nikkei, +1.19%; Shanghai, +1.25%; Hang Seng, +0.74%.  EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.35%; FTSE, +0.34%; CAC, +0.57%.  WALL STREET:  Pre-Markets are higher—DOW, +171;  S&P, +11.75; NAS, +18.50.  EXTERNALS: $ Index: -.333 @ 89.475; MarGold: +$10.90 @ $1,338; Apr crude: -$.08 @ $63.47

·       T-storm Weather: Weekend weather in South America was as expected.  In Argentina, some showers & thunderstorms occur over the next week but only produce scattered 0.25”-0.75” central & south.  Higher amounts of 0.75”-1.50” occur north where ~30% & ~10% of late-corn and soybeans are produced; wettest overall Tue. night & Wed.  Temps average close to normal.  To the north, thunderstorms affect most of Brazil over the next two weeks, with amounts of 2.50”-5.00”, or ~200% of normal

·       CH, up $.0150 @ $3.6775; CK, up $.0175 @ $3.7625.  The funds were said to be even in Friday’s trade         

• SH, up $.0725 @ $10.4350; SK, up $.0725 @ $10.5475.  Funds: bot 4 K SB, 2 K SBM & 4 K SBO. Board crush:  $1.48, -2; LY: $.72
• WH, up $.0550 @ $4.5775; WK, up $.06 @ $4.7025.  Fund buying totaled 3 K to close out the week       

 CORN/SORGHUM

·       ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. corn export sales as of Feb. 15 of 829 mbu are a record for this time of year, which continues to suggest a potentially much stronger export program for March-May compared to December-February

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, although a couple of stronger waves of energy are probable to pass over March 5-11, a continued lack of humidity is probable to keep rain coverage/amounts low; 0.25”-0.75” most likely (wettest north)

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST: Corn 49.8 mbu needed; 36.9 last week.  Milo—5.8 needed; 7.7 last week

·       The 2018 projected crop insurance price average of December 2018 corn futures from Feb. 1-23 is $3.9511

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, although a couple of stronger waves of energy are probable to pass over March 5-11, a continued lack of humidity is probable to keep rain coverage/amounts low; 0.25”-0.75” most likely (wettest north)

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST: Soybeans 26.4 mbu needed; 35.3 last week

·       The 2018 projected crop insurance price average of November 2018 soybean futures from Feb. 1-23 is $10.1334

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST: Wheat 20.4 mbu needed; 15.5 last week

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., central areas remain stormy near-term, but light rains and snows likely hold until next week (March 4-11) in key HRW wheat areas of the Plains

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLJ18, -$.07 @ $63.48; EBJ, -$.11 @ $67.20; EBJ-QCLJ, -$0.01; RBJ, -.0004;NGJ, +.061; HOJ, +.0031

·       On Friday, cash ethanol markets were steady to lower: Chicago was quoted at $1.4725, down $0.0075; Basis to Chicago—New York, +8 ¾; Gulf, +8 ¾; Dallas, +4 ¼; Tampa, +17 ¼; and LA, +18 ¾

·       On Friday, ethanol RINs fell sharply: 2016’s down 6 at 55-60; 2017’s eased 6 ½ to 57-62; & 2018’s off 6 ½ to 58-62

·       The Mar RBOB/Mar ethanol spread closed $.0588 wider on Friday at +$.33750/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               &​nbsp;                     

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• Choice boxed beef values eased 3-cents on Friday to $218.37 but are still up $8.49 vs. a week ago
• Cattle on Feed: Feb. 1 on feed, 107.9% (107.4% avg est); Jan. place, 104.4% (100.8%); Jan. Market, 106.1% (105.9%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 55-cents on Fri. to $78.52, and is up $2.14 compared to last week

• CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.39 on Fri. to $69.78.  April futures were $0.10 higher, and are $1.595 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather