HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Higher:  CH, +$.01; SH, +$.0375; WH, +$.0475; KWH, +$.04 

·       MACRO: World stocks are mixed as markets continue to digest the impact of higher inflation and interest rates on equities.  Asia: Higher:  Nikkei, +0.72%; Shanghai, +0.63%;Hang Seng, +0.98%.  EUROPE: Mixed: DAX, +0.16%; FTSE, -0.15%; CAC, -0.09%.  WALL STREET:  Pre-Markets are higher—DOW, +114;  S&P, +9.25; NAS, +29.00.  EXTERNALS: $ Index: +.119 @ 89.775; Feb Gold: +$0.18 @ $1,331; Apr crude: -$.07 @ $62.70

·       T-storm Weather:  In Argentina, dry weather prevails in most areas through Monday orTuesday as dry air keeps thunderstorms west of most crops.  Some thunderstorms follow within Tue.-Fri., but limited humidity keeps coverage and / or amounts low, producing 0.75"-1.50" for the northern ~30% of late-corn and ~10% of soybeans, while central areas receive 0.25" to 0.75".  In Brazil, heavy thunderstorms recur within the northern growing belt over next few days, while dry weather occurs to the south

·       CH, up $.01 @ $3.6775; CK, up $.01 @ $3.7575.  The funds bought an estimated 3 K         

• SH, up $.0375 @ $10.3575; SK, up $.0350 @ $10.4675.  Funds: sold 1 K SB, 1 K SBM and were even in SBO 
• WH, up $.0475 @ $4.56; WK, up $.045 @ $4.6875.  Fund buying estimated at 4 KThursday      

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 39-59 mbu for 17/18 corn

• T-storm Weather: In Argentina, a drier period follows/continues for at least several days after rain next week, making precip within Feb. 27 – March 2 the main event of next 10 days (or longer); 2.50"-3.00" is normal of the next 2 weeks
• Consultant: Argentina corn crop estimate is lowered by 1.0 MMT to 37.0 MMT with a lower bias going forward
• Ethanol grind: Total of 1,068,000 barrels/day for week end Feb. 16—up 5.1% vs. prior week and 3.3% v. 2017
• The 2018 projected crop insurance price average of December 2018 corn futures from Feb. 1-22 is $3.9497

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales.  Trade expects 22-33 mbu for 17/18 soybeans; 200-450 K MT 17/18 soymeal; & 10-35 K MT 17/18 soyoil

• T-storm Weather: In Argentina, January-February is set to be driest for soybeans since the 1979-80 growing season

·       Consultant: In Argentina, overall development of soybean crop is 25% vegetative stage, 29% flowering, 26% setting pods & 20% filling pods.  Mid-February to mid-March is the critical time period for much of the crop (pod set/pod fill)

·       The 2018 projected crop insurance price average of November 2018 soybean futures from Feb. 1-22 is $10.1237

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 9-18 mbu for 17/18 all wheat

·       T-storm Weather: Eastern/northern half U.S. HRW wheat in central/southern Plains to see at least 0.50" next 2 weeks

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLJ18, -$.07 @ $62.70; EBJ, -$.10 @ $66.29; EBJ-QCLJ, -$0.11; RBJ, -.0047;NGJ, -.05​2; HOJ, -.0043

·       On Thursday, cash ethanol markets were mixed: Chicago was quoted at $1.48, up $0.00875; Basis to Chicago—New York, +9 ¼; Gulf, +8; Dallas, +4 ½; Tampa, +17 ½; and LA, +20 ½

·       On Thursday, ethanol RINs fell: 2016’s off 1 ¼ at 62-65; 2017’s down 1 ¼ to 65-67; & 2018’s eased 1 ¼ to 65-68

·       The Mar RBOB/Mar ethanol spread is trading at +$.26380/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                   &nbs​p; 

• Choice boxed beef values firmed $1.03 on Thursday to $218.40 and are $9.36 higher compared to last week  
• Trade est. for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed report: Feb. 1 On-Feed 107.4%; Jan. Placed 100.8%; Jan. Marketed 105.9%

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 6-cents on Thu. to $77.97, and is $1.92 higher vs. a week ago

• CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.61 on Thu. to $70.17.  April futures increased $1.375, and are $1.105 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather