HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Higher:  CH, +$.0075; SH, +$.0250; WH, +$.0325; KWH, +$.0675. 

·       MACRO: Global markets are weaker early-on, following yesterday’s impressive action on Wall Street. Asia: Mostly lower:  Nikkei, +1.07%; Shanghai, -1.14%; Hang Seng, -0.73%.  EUROPE: Weaker: DAX, -0.61%; FTSE, -0.19%; CAC, -0.21%.  WALL STREET:  Pre-Markets are lower—DOW, -49;  S&P, -7.50; NAS, -16.00.  EXTERNALS: $ Index: -.045 @ 89.745; Mar Gold: +$1.30 @ $1,332; Apr crude: -$.28 @ $63.63

·       T-storm Weather: A few thunderstorms dot Argentina this week, but most focus on the northwest ~30% & ~10% of late-corn & soybeans, especially Tue. night through Wed. night, leaving most other areas with only scattered 0.20"-0.50" totals & less throughSunday.  A stronger wave passes early next week, but only scattered 0.25"-0.75" totals are expected.  To the north, occasional thunderstorms affect varying areas at varying times in Brazil, but not until Wed.-Thu. forward in southern areas

·       CH, up $.0075 @ $3.6925; CK, up $.0050 @ $3.7775.  Argentina weather concerns—funds heavy buyers, 15 K        

• SH, up $.0250 @ $10.3675; SK, up $.0250 @ $10.4850.  Funds: bot 5K SB, 4K SBM & 4 K SBO. Board crush:  $1.54, +6; LY: $.73
• WH, up $.0325 @ $4.6275; WK, up $.0325 @ $4.76.  The funds began the week buying 8 K       

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, total rain of 0.50"-1.00" is most likely next 2 two weeks in key central/southern areas, v. norm of ~3.00".  Some heat develops later this week/weekend, followed by cooler period at least part of next week

·       Consultant: Argentina corn crop est. is lowered 1.0 MMT to 37.0 MMT with a lower bias going forward.  The forecast looks very worrisome for the later planted corn that essentially has suffered adverse weather the entire season

• ATI Research: U.S. corn ending stocks for the 17/18 crop year are pegged at 2.245 bbu vs. USDA at 2.352 bbu

·       USDA reported Monday that U.S. 17/18 corn exports through Feb. 22 totaled 707 mbu vs. 1020 mbu last year (-31%)

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, total rain of 0.50"-1.00" is most likely next 2 two weeks in key central/southern areas, v. norm of ~3.00".  Some heat develops later this week/weekend, followed by cooler period at least part of next week

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean production estimate is lowered 2.0 MMT to 47.0 with a lower bias going forward

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 17/18 crop year are pegged at 586 mbu vs. USDA at 530 mbu

·       ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat ending stocks for the 17/18 crop year are pegged at 486 mbu vs. USDA at 494 mbu

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., some rain and snow are probable at some point(s) in driest HRW areas near term, but highest chances are always to the north and east until the exact path of future systems can be determined

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLJ18, -$.28 @ $63.63; EBJ, -$.26 @ $67.24; EBJ-QCLJ, +$0.01; RBJ, -.27;NGJ, -.020; HOJ, -.0020

·       On Monday, cash ethanol markets were steady to higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.4725, unchanged; Basis to Chicago—New York, +9 ½; Gulf, +13 ½; Dallas, +4 ¼; Tampa, +17 ¼; and LA, +18 ¾

·       On Mon., ethanol RINs weakened: 2016’s off 1 ¼ to 55-57 ½; 2017’s fell 1 ¼ to 57-59 ½; & 2018’s eased 1 ½ to 57-60

·       The Mar RBOB/Mar ethanol spread gained $.0243 on Monday, closing at+$.35070/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           &nbs​p;         

• Choice boxed beef values firmed $1.15 on Monday to $219.52, and is $6.95 higher compared to last week  
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was down $1.80 v. last week at $127.95/cwt, but is up $3.55 v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 65-cents on Mon. to $79.17, & is $1.90 higher vs. a week ago

• Current nearby board hog crush value is $44.57/cwt vs. last week’s $41.91, last month’s $47.79 & last year’s $42.64

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather