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MARKET TREND—firmer: CZ: up $.0175; SX: up $.0825; WZ: up $.0175; KWZ: up $.0250
· MACRO: Kim Jong-un and Trump exchange rhetoric; Fed comments stifle markets; uncertainty of rate hike impact on economic growth increases market uncertainty. ASIA—Mostly lower: Nikkei, -0.25%; Shanghai, -0.15%; Hang Seng, -0.82%. EUROPE: Higher: DAX,+0.28%; FTSE, +0.21%; CAC, +0.47%. WALL STREET—Futures are lower—DOW, -17; S&P, -3.00; NAS, -12.00. EXTERNALS: $ Index: -.309 @ 91.740; Gold: +$5.20 @ $1,296; Oct crude:+$0.06 @ $50.99/bl.
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T-storm Weather: Very heavy rain of 1.75"-3.50" affects much of the Plains over today-Wed., preventing dryness from being a concern for most HRW wheat through October. Rain also affects western corn & soybeans, but sharply drier weather occurs with eastward extent. Temps remain unusually mild through Tue.-Wed., then turn cooler for several days, though unusual coolness is not expected. Some frost is plausible in the northern Corn Belt late next week or weekend, but a killing event is unlikely
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CZ, up $.0175 @ $3.52; CH, up $.0150 @ $3.6450. The funds again bought 3 K in Thursday’s trading session
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SX, up $.0825 @ $9.79; SF, up $.0775 @ $9.8875. Funds: even SB; bot 3 SBM; sold 5 BO. Board Crush: $.84, -2; LY: $.74
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WZ, up $.0175 @ $4.5425; WH, up $.0150 @ $4.7350. Fund buying was estimated at 2 K on Thursday, 1/2 the prior day’s #
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: Unshipped 17/18 export sales of U.S. corn as of Sep. 14 stood at 378 mbu, which is down 37% from 598 mbu at this time a year ago
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T-storm Weather: Most of southeast half of Corn Belt & Delta will be much drier than normal over the next 7-10 days, allowing corn harvesting to advance; heavy rain slows harvest across the Plains & far northwest Corn belt Sep. 23-27
· Consultant: First look at 17/18 corn production in Brazil pegs output at 88.0 MMT, down 10% from this year’s harvest
· Updated NWS forecast for the month of October projecting below to much-below normal precip across U.S. Corn Belt
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean harvest on average increases approximately 7% over Sep. 17-24 to approximately 12%
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ATI Research: Unshipped 17/18 export sales of U.S. soybeans as of Sep. 14 stood at 633 mbu, which is down 23% from 823 mbu at this time a year ago
· T-storm Weather: Rainfall of 0.75” to 1.50” over the next 7-10 days breaks dryness across Western Australia wheat, but not across Queensland and at least the northern half of New South Wales
· ATI Research: Unshipped 17/18 export sales of U.S. all wheat as of Sep. 14 stood at 178 mbu, which is down 9% from 197 mbu this time a year ago. Largest declines by class seen are for HRW (-29%) and HRS (-20%), while SRW is up 1%
ENERGY
· Lower: CLX17, +$.06 @ $50.99; EBX, +$0.03 @ $56.46; EBX-QCLX, +$.03; RBX, +.0094; NGX, +.013; HOX, -.0017
· Cash ethanol markets were mostly lower on Thursday: Chicago down 2 5/8; New York and Dallas off ½; Gulf and Tampa fell 2 ½; but LA was 1 higher at $1.72 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs firmed on Thursday: 2016’s and 2017’s increased 1 to 81 ½-82 ½
· The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol spread widened $.0157 on Thursday, to +$.13280/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
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Choice boxed beef values declined 53-cents on Thursday to $191.51, but are still up 51-cents compared to a week ago
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Pre-report estimates for today’s Cattle on Feed: Sep. 1 On-Feed 102.7%; Aug. Placed 97.3%; & Aug. Marketed 105.8%
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value plummeted $3.01 on Thursday to $72.78, and is $6.14 lower vs. last week
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CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.80 on Thu. to $60.12. October futures declined $1.325 and are $2.795 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather